近五年青海省东部农业区冰雹统计特征及预警指标分析  

Analysis of Statistical Characteristics and Early Warning Indicators of Hail in Agricultural Area of Eastern Qinghai Province in the Past Five Years

作　　者：马丽 买永瑞 黄甜甜 梁靓 Ma Li;Mai Yongrui;Huang Tiantian;Liang Liang(Qinghai Meteorological Observatory,Xining 810001,China;Hainan Prefecture Meteorological Observatory of Qinghai Province,Gonghe 813099,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省气象台,西宁810001 [2]青海省海南州气象台,共和813099

出　　处：《青海科技》2024年第2期148-153,共6页Qinghai Science and Technology

基　　金：青海省气象台2023年自立课题“基于中尺度模式的暴雨预警信号指导产品的客观化研究”(STZL2023-06)。

摘　　要：针对2016-2020年共5年青海东部农业区致灾冰雹天气的时空分布,选取37个致灾冰雹日进行了雷达产品特征分析、探空物理量参数特征分析,得出以下结论:(1)青海省东部农业区致灾冰雹主要发生在6-9月,其中6-7月为致灾冰雹多发期,占全年冰雹总次数的54.2%。冰雹在一天之内一般都发生在14-20时,占72.6%,其他时段发生冰雹的频率较小。(2)东部农业区致灾冰雹次数最多的区域为湟中、互助和大通,致灾冰雹次数均超过10次,分别为14次、14次和11次,占总致灾次数的41%;乐都、化隆、民和等地发生次数次之。(3)建立了雷达产品特征的预报判别指标:组合反射率因子(CR)预警指标为56 dBZ,垂直积分液态水含量(VIL)预警指标为17 kg/m^(2),回波顶高(ET)预警指标为10 km,质心高度(HT)预警指标为3.9 km,反射率因子大于50 dBZ的高度预警指标为4.5 km。分析结果可为今后类似灾害性天气预报预警提供参考依据。This paper provides a spatial-temporal distribution of hail disasters in eastern agricultural region of Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2020.A total of 37 hail disasters were selected for analysis of radar product characteristics and sounding physical quantity parameter characteristics.The following conclusions were drawn:(1)Hail disasters in eastern Qinghai Province mainly occurred from June to September,with June to July being the most frequent period,accounting for 54.2% of the total hail occurrences.Hail generally occured between 14 and 20 o’clock in a day,accounting for 72.6%,while other times periods had a lower frequency of hail occurrences.(2)The eastern agricultural region had the highest frequency of hail disasters in Huangzhong,Huzhu and Datong with more than 10 occurrences each,accounting for 41% of the total.Ledu,Hualong and Minhe and other areas had a lower frequency.(3)The forecast discrimination indicators for radar product characteristics were established:the combined reflectivity(CR)early warning index was 56 dBZ,the vertical integrated liquid(VIL)early warning index was 17 kg/m^(2),the echo height(ET)warning index was 10km,the centroidat height(HT)early warning index was 3.9 km,and the height warning index with base reflectivity factor greater than 50 dBZ was 4.5 km.The analysis results can provide reference for similar disaster weather forecasting and warning in the future.

关 键 词：冰雹 雷达 预警指标 

分 类 号：P426.64[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]