台湾地区选举政治与政党重组发展前景初探——基于2024年选举结果的分析  

An Analysis of the Prospect of Taiwan's Electoral Politics and Party Realignment:Based on Analysis of the 2024 Election Result

作　　者：林冈 LIN Gang(Centre for Studies of Fujian and Taiwan,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,Fujian,China;Center for Taiwan Studies,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学闽台区域研究中心,福建福州350117 [2]上海交通大学台湾研究中心,上海200240

出　　处：《闽台关系研究》2024年第2期33-46,共14页Research on Fujian-Taiwan Relationship

摘　　要：基于2024年台湾地区领导人和立法机构选举结果,探讨该地区选举政治变化与政党重组前景。根据以往选举中不同政党得票情况的起伏变化,观察蓝、绿阵营和南北政治光谱的周期性变化规律,结合政党重组的分析概念,展望政党政治的未来发展趋势。国民党在2024年立法机构选举中扭转败局,民众党作为第三势力强势崛起,为台湾地区政党政治的未来发展提供了两种可能性。如果国民党在下次地区领导人和立法机构选举中获胜,台湾地区行之有年的两党体系可望得以延续,也就不会发生严格意义的政党重组;如果民众党在未来选举中继续得分,则意味着台湾地区可能从两党政治走向多党政治。台湾地区是否会发生公认的政党重组现象,还要根据国民党和民众党在未来选举中的表现进一步观察。This paper explores the prospect of electoral politics and party realignment in Taiwan,based on the outcomes of the 2024 regional leadership and legislative elections on the island.Through a detailed examination of dramatic shifts in votes gained by the"Blue"and"Green"parties in the past,it attempts to detect the regular pattern of periodical changes in party spectrum and local politics,employs the theory and analytic concept of party realignment,and presents a general picture of future development of party politics in Taiwan.The Kuomintang's turnaround in the 2024 legislative election and the strong rise of the pepole in Taiwan's Party as a third force provides two possibilities for the future development of party politics in Taiwan.If the KMT wins the next election for the regional leader and legislature,Taiwan's year-old bipartisan system is expected to continue,and there will be no strict party realignment.If the TPP continues to score in future elections,it means Taiwan could move from bipartisan politics to multi-party politics.It will be further observed on the performance of the KMT and the TPP in future elections whether the recognized political party realignment phenomenon will occur or not.

关 键 词：选举 政党政治 政党重组 国民党 民进党 民众党 第三势力 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学]