煤电高增速背后电力供求分析研究  

Analysis and research on electricity supply and demand behind the high growth rate of coal-fired power

作　　者：刘德健 LIU Dejian(University of International Business and Economics,Chaoyang,Beijing 100029,China;Beijing Fuhua Jiaxin Enterprise Incubator Co.,Ltd.,Chaoyang,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学,北京市朝阳区100029 [2]北京富华佳信企业孵化器有限公司,北京市朝阳区100028

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2024年第6期26-34,共9页China Coal

摘　　要：近年来国内煤电增速同比加快,2023年以不到40%的装机容量,实现了近60%的发电量。阐述了煤电的作用、地位及其相关政策变化;从制造业电力消费增长、社会电力消费量提高、长期电力需求空间大,以及短期内新能源无法满足电力需求、煤电可缓解高负荷压力、电力系统调节能力仍待完善、煤电用能成本相对较低等电力需求侧和供给侧两方面,深入分析了煤电高增速背后的主要原因。研究认为,未来国内能源需求随产业升级和人均能耗提高仍将大幅增加,煤电的电力主体作用短期内不会动摇;同时,认为目前增补煤电势在必行。提出煤电应加快向“调节器”作用转型、继续推动燃煤清洁发电、加快与新能源耦合发展等具体建议。In recent years,the growth rate of domestic coal-fired power has accelerated year-on-year,achieving nearly 60%of power generation with less than 40%installed capacity in 2023.The role,status and related policy changes of coal-fired power were expounded,the main reasons behind the high growth rate of coal-fired power were analyzed from two aspects of power demand side and supply side,specifically including the growth of electricity consumption in the manufacturing industry and society,the large space for long-term power demand,the inability of new energy to meet electricity demand in short term,the ability of coal-fired power to alleviate high load pressure,the still need to improve regulation capacity of the power system,and the relatively low cost of coal-fired power consumption.Research suggests that domestic energy demand will continue to increase significantly with industrial upgrading and per capita energy consumption in the future,and the role of coal-fired power as the main electricity source will not waver in the short term.At the same time,it is believed that adding coal-fired power is necessary at present.Some specific suggestions are proposed,including accelerating the transformation of coal-fired power towards the role of a regulator,continuing to promote clean coal-fired power generation,and accelerating the coupling development of coal-fired power and new energy.

关 键 词：煤电 电力需求侧 电力供给侧 用能成本 电力“调节器”作用 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]