长江中游港口的时空演变与预测——对湖南省城陵矶港的启示  

Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Forecasting of Ports in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River——Implications for Chenglingji Port in Hunan Province

作　　者：刘雅婷 田小勇[1] 吴微伟 LIU Ya-ting;TIAN Xiao-yong;WU Wei-wei(School of Economics and Management,Hunan Institute of Science and Technology,Yueyang,Hunan 414000)

机构地区：[1]湖南理工学院经济与管理学院,湖南岳阳414000

出　　处：《岳阳职业技术学院学报》2024年第3期55-60,共6页Journal of Yueyang Vocational and Technical College

基　　金：2023年湖南省研究生科研创新一般项目“长江经济带低碳港口发展的效率评价及对策研究”(CX20231169)。

摘　　要：本文采用标准差椭圆、重心模型和赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数研究1998—2021年间长江中游集装箱港口的时空演变特征,同时使用线性预测方法对2025—2035年该地区港口集装箱吞吐量进行预测。研究结果表明:赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数在总体上虽有所下降,但市场结构整体上仍处于高寡占Ⅱ型,说明长江中游地区内的集装箱港口分布更加均衡并趋于分散化;长江中游港口的集装箱吞吐量重心在江西省境内,重心轨迹呈现出自东北向西南,再自东南向西北移动的趋势,标准差椭圆的主要分布态势呈现由东北至西南的分布;长江中游港口的集装箱吞吐量呈稳步增长趋势,预测在2035年能达到752万标准箱。本研究能对长江中游集装箱港口提升自身竞争力提供数据参考,以更好发挥港口的辐射带动作用,推动区域港口群协同发展。This paper uses standard deviation ellipse,center of gravity model and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to study the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of container ports in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during 1998-2021,and at the same time uses linear forecasting method to predict the container throughput of ports in the region during 2025-2035.The results of the study show that:although the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index has declined in general,the market structure as a whole is still in high oligopoly type II,indicating that the distribution of container ports within the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is more balanced and tends to be decentralized.The center of gravity of container throughput in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is in Jiangxi Province,and the trajectory of the center of gravity shows the trend of moving from northeast to southwest,and then from southeast to northwest.The container throughput of ports in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is steadily increasing,and it is predicted to reach 7.52 million standard containers by 2035.The research of this paper provides an important reference for the container ports in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River to enhance their competitiveness,which can better play the role of radiation driving in port and promote the synergistic development of regional port clusters.

关 键 词：长江中游地区 集装箱港口 赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数 标准差椭圆 

分 类 号：F552.3[经济管理—产业经济]