四川盆地SZ页岩气藏气井产量变化规律及递减预测新模型  

A new model for production variation patterns and decline prediction of SZ shale gas reservoir in Sichuan basin

作　　者：赵康 陈民锋[1,2] 王艺文 袁道财 东珺珲 ZHAO Kang;CHEN Minfeng;WANG Yiwen;YUAN Daocai;DONG Junhui(College of Petroleum Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Beijing,Beijing 102249,China;State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting,China University of Petroleum,Beijing,Beijing 102249,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)石油工程学院,北京102249 [2]油气资源与探测国家重点实验室(中国石油大学(北京)),北京102249

出　　处：《中国海上油气》2024年第3期129-136,共8页China Offshore Oil and Gas

摘　　要：页岩气井生产特征和常规油气井相比有明显区别,研究页岩气藏产量变化规律及递减预测,对指导页岩气田开发现场措施调整、提高最终可采储量与采出程度等具有重要意义。以四川盆地SZ页岩气藏为例,基于其页岩气井在不同生产阶段日产气量、累积产气量变化特点,开展了不同类型页岩气井产量递减变化规律研究。提出了无因次产量递减率指标,来统一定量描述不同类型页岩气井产量递减率的变化规律;利用产量与递减率之间的定量变化,构建出一种新型的页岩气产量递减预测模型,进而推导出累积产量的数学表达式,考虑新模型中关键参数的取值变化,计算得到了不同初始递减率、产量递减幅度下的日产气量变化规律;结合目前已有的常用产量递减模型,对比分析新模型在不同类型井产量历史拟合及动态预测中的适应性。研究结果表明:新模型相比于已有模型,对SZ页岩气藏不同类型页岩气井产量变化的拟合程度更高、预测效果更好。本文研究可以对页岩气藏有效地进行产量预测和储量动用效果评价提供借鉴。Production characteristics of shale gas wells are significantly different from those of conventional oil and gas wells,and studying the variation patterns of shale gas production and decline prediction is of vital importance to guide the adjustment of shale gas field development measures,improve the ultimate recoverable reserves,and recovery degree.Taking the SZ shale gas reservoir in the Sichuan basin as an example,this study investigated the variation patterns of production decline for different types of shale gas wells based on the change characteristics of daily gas production and cumulative gas production of shale gas wells in different production stages.Firstly,a dimensionless index of production decline rate was proposed to quantitatively describe the variation patterns of production decline rates for different types of shale gas wells;Then, by utilizing the quantitative change between production and decline rates, a novel predictionmodel for shale gas production decline was developed, leading to the derivation of a mathematical expression forcumulative production. Considering the variability of key parameters in the new model, the study calculatedthe variation patterns of daily gas production under different initial decline rates and decline rateamplitudes. Finally, by comparing and analyzing the adaptability of the new model with commonly usedproduction decline models in historical fitting and dynamic prediction of different types of wells, the resultsdemonstrate that the new model exhibits higher fitting accuracy and better predictive performance for productionchanges of different types of shale gas wells in SZ shale gas reservoir. This study provides valuable insights foreffectively predicting production and evaluating the dynamic utilization of reserves in shale gas reservoirs.

关 键 词：页岩气藏 产量递减 无因次递减率 递减幅度 预测模型 储量动用效果 

分 类 号：TE33[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]