我国农产品流通现代化水平评价、动态演进与收敛性  

Evaluation,Dynamic Evolution and Convergence Studies in the Modernization Level of Agricultural Product Circulation in China

作　　者：课题组 杨海丽[1,2] Research Group(Institute for Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone Development,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学成渝地区双城经济圈建设研究院,重庆市400067 [2]重庆工商大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2024年第7期47-60,共14页China Business and Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“脱贫地区小农户数字素养促进农村共同富裕的作用机制与实现路径研究”(23BJY159)。

摘　　要：农产品流通现代化是中国式现代化的具体实践,也是促进小农户共同富裕、加快农业农村现代化、全面推进乡村振兴的重要驱动力。为研究现阶段我国农产品流通现代化特征,解决地区失衡等问题,探索推进农产品流通现代化协同提升路径,从农产品流通规模和效益现代化水平、组织和体制现代化水平、设施和服务现代化水平以及渠道现代化水平四个维度,构建农产品流通现代化水平评价体系,采用变异系数法测度2013—2021年全国30个省份的农产品流通现代化发展水平,并综合运用核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数及其分解、σ收敛、β收敛、俱乐部收敛和多元有序Logit模型深入剖析农产品流通现代化水平的动态演进、地区差异、收敛性特征及其驱动因素。研究发现:第一,全国整体农产品流通现代化水平偏低且提升缓慢,东部地区发展水平最高、增幅最大,中部地区发展大体呈倒V型态势,西部地区提升微弱,东北地区则有衰退趋势。全国整体存在两级分化现象,各地区内部农产品流通现代化发展不均衡,省际绝对差距有逐步扩大趋势,而东部地区内部省份差距最为突出。第二,全国整体及四大地区均不存在σ收敛,但普遍具有条件β收敛特征,表明不同地区农产品流通现代化水平并不会收敛于同一水平。综合考虑地区异质性后,各地区的农产品流通现代化水平趋近各自稳态。第三,农产品流通现代化水平存在跨地区收敛现象,在观测期内形成6个收敛俱乐部和1个存在发展障碍的发散组。低水平俱乐部中的省份可通过加大农业人力资本、物质资本投入和政府扶持力度等路径实现向高水平俱乐部跃进。经济增长可以促进已收敛于高稳态水平俱乐部的省份向更高水平跃迁。基于此,应客观认识并充分重视部分省份及地区农产品流通现代化水平增长缓慢、陷入衰退的事实。引�Modernization of agricultural product circulation is a concrete practice of Chinese path to modernization,and a key driving force to promote the common prosperity of small farmers,accelerate the modernization of agriculture and rural areas,and comprehensively promote rural revitalization.In order to study the characteristics of the modernization of agricultural product circulation in China at the present stage,solve the regional imbalance and other problems,and explore the synergistic upgrading path of promoting the modernization of agricultural product circulation,an evaluation system for the modernization level of agricultural product circulation is constructed from such four dimensions as modernization level of scale and profitability of agricultural product circulation,modernization level of organization and system,modernization level of facilities and services,and modernization level of channels,and the coefficient of variation method is used to measure the development level of modernization of agricultural product circulation in 30 provinces from 2013 to 2021.The kernel density estimation,Dagum's Gini coefficient and its decomposition,σconvergence,βconvergence,club-convergence and multivariate ordered Logit model are used to analyze the dynamic evolution,regional differences,convergence characteristics and driving factors of modernization level of agricultural product circulation.It is found that,first,the overall modernization level of agricultural product circulation in China is low and the growth rate is also slow;the eastern region has the highest level of development and the largest increase;the central region shows an inverted V-shape;the western region shows weak improvement;and the northeastern region has a declining trend.The country as a whole has a polarization phenomenon,the development of modernization of agricultural product circulation within each region is not balanced,and the absolute inter-provincial gap has a tendency to gradually expand,while the gap between provinces within the easter

关 键 词：农产品流通现代化 动态演进 地区差异 俱乐部收敛 

分 类 号：F713[经济管理—产业经济]