东北三省人口流失的结构性与流向特征——基于长时序人口普查数据的区域比较分析  

Structure and destination choices of out-migrants from Northeast China:Based on long-term comparative analysis of census data

作　　者：刘涛[1] 杨梦 彭荣熙 Liu Tao;Yang Meng;Peng Rongxi(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences/Center for Urban Future Research,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院/北京大学未来城市研究中心,北京100871

出　　处：《地理科学》2024年第6期1016-1025,共10页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42371231)资助。

摘　　要：利用1990—2020年历次全国人口普查和1%人口抽样调查数据,本文从结构和比较的视角考察了东北三省人口流失规模、来源和目的地选择的典型特征及动态变化。结果表明,东北三省人口流失是始于1990年的长期现象,但人口流失的规模和比例远低于中西部主要人口流出区;持续性的人口减少是人口流入率低、户籍迁出率高、城乡人口同步流出等多种原因造成的,也是东北人口流失的典型地域特征。经济因素是东北和其他省份外流人口目的地选择的共性主导因素;东北外流人口更加重视流入地的医疗卫生服务,近20 a的流出人口年轻化导致该地区对教育资源的偏好性大幅提升,且持续受到区位因素的较大制约,但始终没有明显的气候偏好性。区域吸引力不足的长期性和全面性意味着东北三省在尽力延缓人口流失趋势的同时,还应积极探索人口流失区高质量发展的新路径。Based on the data of the national censuses and 1%population sampling surveys from 1990 to 2020,this study investigates the characteristics and dynamic changes of the amount,source and destination selection of population outflow in the three northeastern provinces,namely Heilongjiang,Jilin,and Liaoning,from the perspective of structural and comparative analysis.The results show that population loss in the three northeast-ern provinces is a long-term phenomenon which could be dated back to the 1990s.However,the intensity of the population outflow in Northeast China is weaker than other regions with population loss such as central and western provinces according to the outflow amount and rate.The major cause of long-lasting population loss for Northeast China is not the huge amount of population outflow,but the combined effects of the low popula-tion inflow rate,the high outflow rate of registered residents,and the simultaneous outflow of urban and rural population.Compared with other provinces with population outflow such as Guizhou,Sichuan,Henan,and An-hui,the destinations of outflowed population from Northeast China are more diversified and decentralized.Economic factors are the common leading factors for the destination choice of the outflow population from Northeast China and other provinces.The outflow population from Northeast China prefer places that are geo-graphically closer and have high-quality employment and public services,but no obvious evidence was found for their salient climate preference as previous studies claimed.The permanence and comprehensiveness of the lack of regional population attraction in Northeast China indicate that the regional governments not only should take measures to delay the outflow of population as much as possible,but also should actively explore new paths of high-quality development for better coping with population loss.

关 键 词：人口流失 结构解析 迁移空间选择 区域比较研究 东北地区 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]