城乡用地需求预测及优化配置研究  

Research on Urban and Rural Land Demand Forecasting and Optimal Allocation

作　　者：杨赟澎 Yang Yunpeng(North China University of Water Resourcesand Electric Power,Zhengzhou,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学,河南郑州

出　　处：《科学技术创新》2024年第16期147-150,共4页Scientific and Technological Innovation

摘　　要：为了预测并优化城乡用地需求量,确保土地资源的合理利用与区域可持续发展,文章依托具体案例,构建了灰色-马尔可夫链模型,采用多目标决策分析方法,结合人口增长、经济发展需求和生态保护等因素,系统分析城乡用地需求。研究结果表明,通过模型预测的用地需求量与实际发展趋势高度吻合,信息熵原理的应用进一步验证了预测结果的可靠性。基于预测结果,提出了用地类型划分、区域分配、空间配置优化等策略,包括促进城市内部空间集约化发展、构建生态网络、推广多功能土地利用等,为城乡用地规划提供了科学依据,对促进区域可持续发展具有重要意义。In order to predict and optimize the demand for urban and rural land,ensure the rational use of land resources and regional sustainable development,this paper constructs a grey-Markov chain model based on specific cases,and systematically analyzes the demand for urban and rural land by using multi-objective decision analysis method,combined with population growth,economic development demand and ecological protection.The results show that the land demand predicted by the model is highly consistent with the actual development trend,and the application of information entropy principle further verifies the reliability of the prediction results.Based on the prediction results,the strategies of land use type division,regional distribution and spatial configuration optimization are put forward,including promoting the intensive development of urban internal space,constructing ecological network and promoting multi-functional land use.It provides a scientific basis for urban and rural land use planning and is of great significance to promote regional sustainable development.

关 键 词：城乡用地 需求预测 灰色-马尔可夫链模型 空间优化配置 多目标决策 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]