Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model  

作　　者：HOU Xiyong SONG Baiyuan ZHANG Xueying WANG Xiaoli LI Dong 

机构地区：[1]Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Yantai 264003,China [2]Shandong Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes,Yantai 264003,China [3]CAS Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation,Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Yantai 264003,China [4]Shanghai Fuxiong Environmental Technology Corporation,Shanghai 200433,China

出　　处：《Chinese Geographical Science》2024年第4期579-598,共20页中国地理科学（英文版）

基　　金：Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42176221,41901133);Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA19060205);Seed project of Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.YIC-E3518907)。

摘　　要：Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.

关 键 词：land use and land cover change(LUCC) multi-scenario simulation system dynamic-future land use simulation(SD-FLUS)model SSP-RCP scenarios model coupling China's coastal zone 

分 类 号：P748[天文地球—海洋科学]