基于最小割集故障树分析的安全风险发生概率评估  

Probability Assessment of Safety Risk Occurrence Based on Minimum Cut Set Fault Tree Analysis Method

作　　者：黄坤 汪海涛 安隆坤 HUANG Kun;WANG Haitao;AN Longkun(The 726th Research Institute of CSSC,Shanghai 201108,China)

机构地区：[1]中国船舶集团有限公司第七二六研究所,上海201108

出　　处：《舰船电子对抗》2024年第3期45-50,共6页Shipboard Electronic Countermeasure

摘　　要：针对武器装备安全风险发生概率评估的实际需求,详细介绍了最小割集的确定方法、重要度计算分析和安全风险发生概率计算等内容。采用了一种基于最小割集故障树分析的安全风险发生概率评估方法,完成对拔销器意外动作危险事件发生概率的评估,得到了拔销器意外动作安全风险发生的概率值,并结合重要度分析确定了引发拔销器意外动作的关键因素,采取相关设计措施降低安全风险发生的概率。In response to the actual demand for safety risk occurrence probability assessment of weapon equipment,the method of determining the minimum cut set,importance calculation analysis and safety risk occurrence probability calculation are introduced in detail.A risk probability assessment method based on minimum cut set fault tree analysis is used to evaluate the probability of unexpected action of pin pullers,and the safety risk probability value of the unexpected action of the pin pullers is obtained.Combined with the importance analysis,the key factors causing the unexpected action of the pin puller are determined,and relevant design measures are taken to reduce the probability of safety risk occurrence.

关 键 词：最小割集 故障树分析 重要度分析 安全风险发生概率 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]