Charting the course:India's health expenditure projections for 2035  

作　　者：Pragyan Monalisa Sahoo Himanshu Sekhar Rout 

机构地区：[1]Department of Analytical&Applied Economics,Utkal University,Bhubaneswar,Odisha,India [2]Department of Analytical and Applied Economics&RUSA Centre of Excellence in Public Policy and Governance,Utkal University,Vani Vihar,Bhubaneswar,Odisha,India

出　　处：《Global Health Journal》2024年第2期58-66,共9页全球健康杂志（英文）

摘　　要：Objectives Understanding past trends and forecasting future changes in health spending is vital for planning and reducing reliance on out-of-pocket(OOP)expenses.The current study analyzed health expenditure patterns in India and forecasted future trends and patterns until 2035.Methods Data on health expenditure in India from 2000 to 2019 was collected from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)iLibrary and National Health Accounts 2019 databases.Gross domestic product(GDP)data from the World Bank was also utilized.Descriptive statistics analyzed the composition and pattern,while the exponential smoothing model forecasted future health expenditures.Results The findings revealed that expenditure made by OOP is the primary health financing source,followed by government and pre-paid private spending.The percentage of GDP allocated to total health expenditure remains stable,while the per capita health expenditure fluctuates.Variations in expenditure among states are observed,with Karnataka relying heavily on pre-paid private coverage.Future projections suggest a decline in per capita and total health expenditure as a share of GDP,with a slight increase in the government’s share.Pre-paid private expenditure per capita and OOP health expenditure as a share of the total is projected to remain relatively constant but still high in absolute terms.Conclusion The study highlights variations in health spending in India,characterized by high OOP spending,limited public coverage,and a need for investments,and reforms to improve healthcare access and equity.

关 键 词：Health expenditure Health spending Health financing Forecasting Exponential smoothing INDIA 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]