基于随机模拟的火山CO_(2)释放通量预测研究:以意大利埃特纳火山为例  

Prediction of volcanic CO_(2) flux based on random simulation:Taking the Mount Etna,Italy as an example

作　　者：孙浩然 豆佳乐 李南 吴鹏 杜聪 段先哲 SUN Haoran;DOU Jiale;LI Nan;WU Peng;DU Cong;DUAN Xianzhe(School of Resource&Environment and Safety Engineering,University of South China,Hengyang 421001,China;Hunan Key Laboratory of the Rare Metal Minerals Exploitation and Geological Disposal of Wastes,Hengyang 421001,China;School of Chemistry&Chemical Engineering,University of South China,Hengyang 421001,China)

机构地区：[1]南华大学资源环境与安全工程学院,湖南衡阳421001 [2]稀有金属矿产开发与废物地质处置技术湖南省重点实验室,湖南衡阳421001 [3]南华大学化学化工学院,湖南衡阳421001

出　　处：《地学前缘》2024年第4期429-437,共9页Earth Science Frontiers

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41503016);国家外国专家项目(G2022029012L);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2023JJ30505);衡阳市指导性计划项目(202121014464);南华大学人才项目(2018XQD22)。

摘　　要：火山活动能够将地球深部的碳输送到大气圈,是地质碳排放和深部碳循环的重要形式。火山区所释放的温室气体(尤其是CO_(2)气体),对全球气候有着重要的影响。在全球气候变暖及“碳中和”计划的背景下,估算火山区温室气体释放通量,评估其对全球碳排放的影响,具有至关重要的意义。本文阐述了火山区温室气体释放的主要特征及调查方法,并以意大利埃特纳火山为例,指出可以使用地统计学原理对火山区CO_(2)气体采样数据进行插值模拟。最后,本文分析了加入协变量进行协克里格插值模拟的可行性,并与普通克里格插值法的模拟结果进行比较。结果表明:火山区CO_(2)释放通量与火山区土壤温度之间具有相关性,引入土壤温度进行协克里格插值模拟,可以优化模拟结果的误差指标。本研究将为定量评价火山活动对气候变化的影响以及预警火山灾害提供重要依据。Volcanic activity,as a significant source of geological carbon emissions and contributor to deep carbon cycles,transports carbon from the Earth’s interior to the atmosphere.Greenhouse gases,particularly CO_(2),emitted by volcanic regions,exert a profound influence on global climate dynamics.Against the backdrop of global warming and initiatives such as the“carbon neutral”program,accurately estimating the flux of greenhouse gases from volcanic regions and assessing their impact on global carbon budgets are imperative.This paper elucidates the primary characteristics and survey methodologies for quantifying greenhouse gas emissions in volcanic areas.It proposes employing geostatistical methods to simulate CO_(2) sampling data from volcanoes,exemplified by Mount Etna,Italy.Additionally,the feasibility of incorporating covariates for cokriging interpolation simulations is analyzed,with comparisons drawn against ordinary kriging interpolation methods.Our findings reveal a correlation between CO_(2) release flux and soil temperature in volcanic regions,indicating that integrating soil temperature into cokriging interpolation simulations can mitigate error indices in the results.This research offers critical insights for quantitatively assessing the impact of volcanic activity on climate change and enhancing early warning systems for volcanic hazards.

关 键 词：火山活动 温室气体 碳排放 随机模拟 克里格插值法 

分 类 号：P317[天文地球—固体地球物理学]