金融服务贸易发展的测度与评价:指数构建及其耦合解构  

Financial Services Trade Development Measurement and Evaluation:Index Construction and Its Coupled Deconstruction

作　　者：李小牧 阮敬 牛雨佳 LI Xiaomu;RUAN Jing;NIU Yujia(Capital University of Economics and Business)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学 [2]首都经济贸易大学发展规划处

出　　处：《国际贸易》2024年第6期32-44,共13页Intertrade

摘　　要：文章以产业、贸易和投资对金融服务的推动作用为基础,创造性地从贸易现状和贸易潜力两个方面构建跨国可比的金融服务贸易发展测度与评价体系,运用逐层纵横向拉开档次法测算金融服务贸易发展指数,通过耦合协调模型分析金融服务贸易发展动态特征及各子系统间协调发展的内在动因,并基于灰色关联度和因子探测方法对这些内在动因进行解构。以中美日三大经济体为例的实证分析结果表明:美日两国金融服务贸易指数整体呈现上升趋势,金融服务贸易现状指数普遍领先金融服务贸易潜力指数,中国近几年总指数连续下滑,但具备明显的金融服务贸易潜力优势;货物贸易发展对中美日金融服务贸易潜力的提升有正向促进作用;中美日贸易现状与潜力耦合协调度变动范围在轻微失调与基本协调之间,逐渐摆脱无序状态并向良性互动演变。Based on the promotion role of industry,trade and investment on financial services,the article creatively constructs a cross-country comparable financial services trade development measurement and evaluation system from the aspects of trade status quo and trade potential,measures the financial services trade development index by applying layer-by-layer longitudinal and transversal slotting method,analyzes the dynamic characteristics of the financial services trade development and the intrinsic motivation of the coordinated development of the various subsystems through the coupling and coordination model and deconstructs these intrinsic motivation based on the gray correlation and factor detection methods.Deconstruct these intrinsic drivers based on gray correlation and factor detection methods.The results of the empirical analysis of the three major economies of China,the United States and Japan show that:the financial services trade index of the United States and Japan as a whole shows an upward trend,and the index of the current status of financial services trade is generally ahead of the index of the potential of financial services trade,and China's total index has been declining continuously in recent years,but it has an obvious advantage in the potential of financial services trade;the development of trade in goods has a positive effect on the potential of China,the United States and Japan to improve the potential of financial services trade;China,the U.S.and Japan's trade status and potential coupled with the degree of coordination in the range of slight dissonance and basic coordination,and gradually get rid of the disorderly state and evolve towards a benign interaction.

关 键 词：金融服务贸易 指标体系 耦合协调度 动因解构 

分 类 号：F752.68[经济管理—国际贸易] F832[经济管理—产业经济]