基于华东区域模式云南短时强降水客观预报技术研究  

Research on Objective Forecasting Technology of Short-term Strong Precipitation in Yunnan based on the East China Regional Model

作　　者：朱莉[1,2] 许彦艳 许迎杰[1,2] 邱学兴 闵颖[1,2] ZHU Li;XU Yanyan;XU Yingjie;QIU Xuexing;MIN Ying(Yunnan Meteorological Observatory,Kunming 650034,China;Research Center for Disastrous Weather over Hengduan Mountains&Low-Latitude Plateau,CMA,Kunming 650034,China;Anhui Meteorological Observatory,Hefei 230031,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034 [2]中国气象局横断山区(低纬高原)灾害性天气研究中心,云南昆明650034 [3]安徽省气象台,安徽合肥230031

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2024年第4期464-469,共6页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：中国气象局创新发展专项资助项目(CXFZ2022J021);云南省科技计划资助项目(202203AC100005、202203AC100006、202201AS070069);国家自然科学基金资助项目(42075013、42375043)。

摘　　要：为提高云南短时强降水的预报效率和预报准确率,使用华东区域模式基础物理量数据,计算云南短时强降水发生前1 h 700 hPa相对湿度、700 hPa比湿、K指数和6 km垂直风切变,对短时强降水的历史个例进行物理量阈值训练和单物理量的敏感性实验,确定物理量阈值。使用阈值判定法,对华东区域模式实时预报数据进行后处理,得到基于小时雨量和物理量的云南本地化短时强降水客观预报产品。研究结果表明:使用阈值判定法研发的基于华东区域模式云南短时强降水客观预报产品能较好地预报云南短时强降水的落区和走向,但是基于小时雨量的短时强降水客观预报产品漏报明显,基于物理量阈值的客观预报产品能有效降低云南短时强降水的漏报率。To enhance the prediction efficiency and accuracy of short-term heavy precipitation in Yunnan province,this study utilized the basic physical quantity data from the East China regional model,calculate the 700 hPa relative humidi-ty,700 hPa specific humidity,K index and 6 km vertical wind shear in Yunnan,one hour prior to the occurrence of the short-term heavy precipitation,conduct physical quantity threshold training and single physical quantity sensitivity test on the historical cases of the short-term strong precipitation,and determine the physical quantity threshold.The thresh-old judgment method was employed to post-process the real-time forecast data of the East China regional model,and the objective short-term strong precipitation forecast product in Yunnan based on hourly rainfall and physical quantity was obtained.The research results show that the objective forecast product of Yunnan short-term heavy precipitation based on the East China regional model developed by the threshold judgment method can better predict the falling area and trend of Yunnan short-term heavy precipitation,but the objective forecast product of short-term heavy precipitation based on hourly rainfall has obvious omission,and the objective forecast product based on the physical quantity threshold can ef-fectively reduce the omission rate of Yunnan short-term heavy precipitation.

关 键 词：短时强降水 华东区域模式 阈值判定法 云南 客观预报产品 

分 类 号：P456.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]