基于MaxEnt模型的华顶杜鹃潜在适生区预测和分析  

Potential Distribution of Rhododendron huadingense by MaxEnt Model

作　　者：李东宾 魏晶晶 许志斌 何立平 徐栋斌 沈登锋 LI Dongbin;WEI Jingjing;XU Zhibin;HE Liping;XU Dongbin;SHEN Dengfeng(Ningbo Forest Farm of Zhejiang,Ningbo 315440,China;Ningbo Academy of Agricultural Sciences of Zhejiang,Ningbo 315040,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波市林场,浙江宁波315440 [2]宁波市农业科学研究院,浙江宁波315040

出　　处：《浙江林业科技》2024年第3期1-10,共10页Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology

基　　金：宁波市2025现代种业重大专项(2021Z005);宁波市林场科技项目(LK202102)。

摘　　要：基于华顶杜鹃Rhododendron huadingense 24个精准有效的分布点和筛选的10个环境变量,利用ArcGIS软件和MaxEnt模型预测华顶杜鹃当代和未来在中国的潜在适生区分布和变化及其主要的影响环境变量,为华顶杜鹃的资源保护和野外回归提供科学参考。结果表明:MaxEnt模型可以精准地预测华顶杜鹃在中国的潜在适生区分布;最干季度降水量(bio17)、年均温(bio1)和海拔(Alt)是影响华顶杜鹃生存和分布的主要环境变量,其适生阈值狭窄,对华顶杜鹃的潜在分布具有很强的限制性;当代华顶杜鹃的潜在适生区主要分布于浙江省和安徽省的特定山地区域,适生面积仅为2140.3 km2;在未来气候变化背景下的2050s和2090s时期,作为特有山地植物的华顶杜鹃,其潜在适生区将急剧收缩甚至消失,濒危程度和灭绝风险明显增高。Based on 24 precise and effective distribution coordinates of Rhododendron huadingense and 10 selected environmental variables,the potential distribution and change of R.huadingense in China in the present and future,as well as the main impact environmental variables,were predicted using ArcGIS software and MaxEnt model.It aims to provide scientific references for the resource protection and reintroduction of R.huadingense.The results showed that MaxEnt model could accurately predict potential distribution of R.huadingense in China.The precipitation of the driest season,mean annual temperature and altitude were the main environmental variables affecting the survival and distribution of R.huadingense,with narrow threshold,which highly limit the potential distribution of R.huadingense.At present,the potential distribution of R.huadingense mainly distributed in the specific mountain areas of Zhejiang and Anhui province,with area only 2140.3 km2.In the 2050s and 2090s,under future climate change,the potential distribution area of R.huadingense would decrease sharply or even disappear,and the degree of endangerment and extinction risk would significantly increase.

关 键 词：华顶杜鹃 潜在适生区 MAXENT 气候变化 

分 类 号：Q948.2[生物学—植物学] S685.21[农业科学—观赏园艺]