社会经济地位与居民生育:一个生育不平等分析框架  

Socioeconomic Status and Residents’Fertility:An Analytical Framework of Fertility Inequality

作　　者：石智雷 王璋 SHI Zhilei;WANG Zhang(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan Hubei,430073,China;School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan Hubei,430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院 [2]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《人口学刊》2024年第4期5-23,共19页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目:生育支持政策试点效果跟踪评估与生育友好型社会构建研究(19ARK004)。

摘　　要：三孩政策在扩大生育选择空间的同时衍生出一种新的生育不平等。本文基于2021年第三期“湖北百县生育调查”数据,从理论和实证两个方面论证三孩政策下我国城乡居民社会经济地位与生育意愿、生育行为之间的逻辑关系。在理论层面,文章提出三孩政策下的生育不平等分析框架。该框架立足于两个基本前提:第一,中国的生育率转变已经完成,目前处于生育成本约束驱动阶段。第二,人们是理性的,会权衡经济条件、生育偏好等各个层面的因素进行生育决策。在此基础上,生育不平等是指由于所处社会地位或经济状况的限制,不同社会经济地位人群实现自身生育需求的结果出现明显分化。社会经济地位较高人群能够更好地实现生育愿望,而社会经济地位较低群体受限于财富、权利或社会资源等因素,无法满足自身对孩子数量的期望。在实证层面,文章综合运用工具变量法与倾向得分匹配法解决计量模型的内生性与选择性问题,检验我国当前的生育不平等及其生成机制。研究发现:在实际生育水平远低于政策生育水平的背景下,居民社会经济地位越高,生育意愿越强,越可能生育更多的孩子。在一系列考虑地区经济水平、生育文化等因素的稳健性检验后,该结论仍然显著成立。机制分析发现生育不平等是在生育成本约束下,社会、经济资源的不均等占有导致不同社会经济地位群体的抗生育风险能力差异引致的。同时,区域内社会分化的扩大对生育不平等存在一种强化效应,区域内不同家庭的社会分化程度越高,生育不平等程度也越高。生育不平等是三孩政策实施后新显现出的社会现象,也很可能成为未来的长期发展趋势。生育平等并不是要求每个人都有同样的生育数量,而应当是基于每个人的不同需求,制定政策使这个具有人际相异性的社会上具体的个人都能The Three-Child policy not only expands the space of fertility choice,but also generates a new kind of fertility inequality.Based on the data of the third“Hubei 100 Counties Fertility Survey”(2021),this paper analyzes the logical relationship between residents’socio-economic status,fertility willingness and behavior under the Three-Child policy.At the theoretical level,this paper proposes a framework for analyzing fertility inequality under the Three-Child policy.This framework is based on two basic premises:Firstly,China’s fertility transformation has been completed and is currently in the stage of fertility cost constrained.Secondly,people are rational and weigh various factors such as economic conditions and fertility preferences when making fertility decisions.On this basis,fertility inequality as a significant differentiation in the outcomes of different socio-economic groups achieve their own fertility willingness due to limitations in their social or economic status.While people with high socioeconomic status are able to freely fulfill their willingness to fertility,those with low socioeconomic status are limited by factors such as wealth,rights,or social resources,and cannot achieve their fertility willingness.At the empirical level,this paper comprehensively uses instrumental variable method and propensity score matching method to solve the endogeneity and selectivity problems of econometric models,and tests the current fertility inequality and its mechanism in China.Research has found that in the context of actual fertility levels far below policy fertility levels,the higher socio-economic status,the stronger fertility willingness,and more likely to have another child.After a series of robustness tests considering factors such as regional economic level and fertility culture,this conclusion still holds significantly.Mechanism analysis reveals that fertility inequality is caused by the unequal ownership of social and economic resources under the fertility costs constraint,leading to differences i

关 键 词：生育 不平等 社会经济地位 三孩政策 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]