计及网损和相关性的新型电力系统概率碳排放流计算  

Calculation of probabilistic carbon emission flow in a new power system considering network losses and correlation

作　　者：翟绘景[1] 高梓淳 李文静 王佼[2] 赵旭 孙银锋[2] ZHAI Huijing;GAO Zichun;LI Wenjing;WANG Jiao;ZHAO Xu;SUN Yinfeng(Shandong Electric Power Engineering Consulting Institute,Jinan 250013,China;Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132012,China)

机构地区：[1]山东电力工程咨询院有限公司,山东济南250013 [2]东北电力大学,吉林吉林132012

出　　处：《供用电》2024年第7期84-91,共8页Distribution & Utilization

基　　金：吉林省教育厅社会科学项目“‘双碳’目标下吉林省乡村绿色发展测度评价及实现途径研究”(JJKH20230153SK);山东电力工程咨询院有限公司科技项目(37-K2023-139)。

摘　　要：随着气候变化的加剧和化石能源的日益枯竭,构建低碳发展的新型电力系统势在必行。随着新能源并网规模的不断扩大,电力系统运行工况愈加复杂多变。为了更好地评估现代电力系统不确定性对碳排放的影响,对计及新型电力系统中光伏发电和风力发电不确定性的碳排放流进行计算,并充分考虑出力相关性及网损的影响,以确保计算结果的全面精确。首先,建立了计及光伏和风力发电不确定性的概率潮流计算模型。其次,在新型电力系统概率潮流计算模型中,进一步考虑了光伏出力的相关性,获得概率潮流计算结果。最后,根据概率潮流结果,对IEEE 14节点系统中考虑网损影响的碳排放流进行了更精确的计算,并建立了概率碳排放流模型,计算结果证明了所提方法的可靠性。With the intensification of climate change and the increasing depletion of fossil fuels,a new type of power system dedicated to low-carbon development is imperative.With the continuous expansion of the scale of new energy grid connections,the operating conditions of the power system have become increasingly complex and variable.To better evaluate the impact of uncertainty in modern power systems on carbon emissions,the carbon emission flow of photovoltaic and wind power generation in new power systems is calculated,taking into account the uncertainty of output correlation and grid losses,to make the calculation results more comprehensive and accurate.Firstly,a probabilistic power flow calculation model was established that takes into account the uncertainty of photovoltaic and wind power generation.Secondly,the probabilistic power flow calculation model of the new power system takes into account the correlation of photovoltaic output to obtain the probability power flow calculation results.Finally,based on the probabilistic power flow results,a more accurate carbon emission flow considering network losses was calculated on the IEEE-14 node system,and a probabilistic carbon emission flow model was established.The analysis of the results demonstrated the reliability of the above method.

关 键 词：概率潮流 新能源 碳排放流 不确定性 相关性 网损 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]