考虑源荷储不确定性的新型电力系统随机生产模拟方法  

Stochastic Production Simulation Method for New Power System Considering Uncertainty of Source Network Load and Storage

作　　者：刘俊磊 刘新苗 娄源媛 邢月 徐芸霞 LIU Junlei;LIU Xinmiao;LOU Yuanyuan;XING Yue;XU Yunxia(Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510600,China;Sichuan Energy Internet Research Institute,Tsinghua University,Chengdu 610299,China)

机构地区：[1]广东电网有限责任公司,广州510600 [2]清华四川能源互联网研究院,成都610299

出　　处：《南方电网技术》2024年第6期36-42,共7页Southern Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(U22B6008);广东电网有限责任公司规划项目(030000QQ00220001)。

摘　　要：新型电力系统可再生能源占比不断增加,给电力系统的安全稳定带来新的挑战,对新能源出力不确定性进行随机生产模拟对电力系统的规划和运行具有指导意义。首先,对新能源出力和负荷预测的不确定性进行建模。然后通过主成分聚类分析方法对新能源出力和负荷数据的时序性相关性进行处理,并结合等效变量函数法进行随机生产模拟;最后,通过某省实际电力系统算例进行了验证,证明了所提出的理论方法的正确性,可为新型电力系统随机生产模拟提供新的思路和方法。The increasing proportion of renewable energy in the new power system brings new challenges to the security and stability of the power system.The random production simulation of the uncertainty of the renewable energy output has guiding significance for the planning and operation of the power system.Firstly,the uncertainty of new energy output and load prediction is modeled.The principal component cluster analysis method is used to process the temporal correlation of new energy output and load data,and the equivalent variable function method is combined to carry out random production simulation.Finally,the correctness of the theoretical method proposed in this paper is verified by an actual power system example in a province,which can provide new ideas and methods for stochastic production simulation of new power systems.

关 键 词：可再生能源 不确定模型 聚类分析 随机生产模拟 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]