留有余地还是积极进取:地方人事变更对地方税收收入预算偏离的影响  

Conservative or Proactive Economic Development Policy:Impact of Local Personnel Changes on the Budget Deviation of Local Tax Revenue

作　　者：冯辉 肖新辉 FENG Hui;XIAO Xinhui(School of Finance and Taxation,Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南财经政法大学财政税务学院,郑州450046

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2024年第7期1-18,共18页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“企业绿色税收遵从的同群演化路径与协同治理机制研究”(23CJY014);河南省科学技术厅软科学研究项目“财政紧平衡背景下地方预算编制科学性问题研究”(232400412038)。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告提出“健全现代预算制度”,预算编制科学性是现代预算制度的原则要求。基于1997—2021年中国30个省份面板数据,实证研究了地方人事变更对税收收入预算偏离的影响。研究发现,地方人事变更前后,税收预算偏离呈现出“扩张-收缩”的周期特征。原因在于,地方官员预期人事变更前的监察监督和社会监督较强,职务调整不确定性较高,收益与风险的失衡约束着地方官员的经济行为,理性的地方官员更偏好“留有余地”的经济发展规划。地方人事变更后,地方官员预期监察监督和社会监督力度会有所减弱,职务调整已完成,晋升竞争和财政增收共同激励着地方官员选择“积极进取”的经济政策。机制分析表明,地方人事变更会通过GDP超计划增长和税收努力的渠道影响税收预算偏离。增值税和企业所得税是地方主要税收来源,但它们的征管权限安排和税收制度设计有显著差异,进一步分析发现,增值税收入预算偏离主要体现在地方人事变更前1年,企业所得税收入预算偏离的周期效应更为明显。研究结论对约束地方财政行为,提高预算编制科学性具有借鉴意义。The Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China explicitly proposed the idea of“improving the modern budget System”.Scientific budgeting is the principle requirement of the modern budget system.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces across China from 1997 to 2021,an empirical study is made on the impact of local personnel changes on the budget deviation of local tax revenue.The study finds that tax budget deviation has a cyclical characteristic of“expansion—contraction”before and after the local personnel changes.The reason is that before the expected personnel change of local officials,the government and social supervisory strengths are stronger,and the job position change uncertainty is higher,so the unbalance between income and risk constrains the economic behavior of local officials.Rational local officials prefer“conservative”economic development policies.After the local personnel change,the expected government and social supervisory strengths are weakened,and job position change has finished.The promotion competition and fiscal revenue increase mutually motivate local officials to choose proactive economic policies.Mechanism analysis suggests that local personnel change influences tax budget deviation through the channels of GDP growth beyond plan and tax effort.In addition,value-added tax and corporate income tax are the main sources of local tax revenue,but their collection authority arrangement and tax system design are significantly different.Further analysis shows that the budget deviation of value-added tax revenue is mainly reflected in the one year before the personnel change,and the budge deviation of corporate income tax revenue is more obvious.The conclusions can be used as references to restrain local fiscal behavior and improve the scientificity of budgeting.

关 键 词：地方人事变更 地方税收收入 预算偏离 现代预算制度 

分 类 号：F812.3[经济管理—财政学]