2013-2023年间浙江省青少年游泳比赛成绩变化趋势及两种成绩预测模型对比赛成绩预测效果的对比分析  

The Trend of Performance Changes in Youth Swimming Competitions in Zhejiang Province 2013-2023 and the Comparative Analysis of Two Performance Prediction Models for Performance Prediction

作　　者：史放[1] SHI Fang(Department of Physical Education,Zhejiang Colege of Sports,Hangzhou 310012,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江体育职业技术学院体育系,浙江杭州310012

出　　处：《浙江体育科学》2024年第4期47-54,共8页Zhejiang Sport Science

摘　　要：采用数理统计法、预测分析法对2013-2023年间“迎春杯”浙江省青少年游泳锦标赛的成绩进行分析,以探讨2013-2023年间青少年游泳整体水平的发展变化情况。通过整合2013-2022十年间比赛成绩,采用灰色理论GM(1,1)预测模型和BP神经网络预测模型对2023年比赛冠军成绩和前八名平均成绩进行预测,将预测值和2023年比赛的实测值进行拟合对比,采用均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)对两种模型的预测能力进行评定,探索更加有效的成绩预测方法,为今后备战重要比赛提供一定的理论参考依据。This article uses mathematical statistics and predictive analysis to analyze the results of the"Spring Welcoming Cup"Zhejiang Youth Swimming Championships from 2013 to 2023.To explore the development and changes in the overall level of youth swimming from 2013 to 2023 by integrating the competition results from 2013 to 2022,the grey theory GM(1,1)prediction model and BP neural network prediction model are used to predict the championship results and the average scores of the top eight in 2023.The predicted values are fitted and compared with the measured values of the 2023 competition,Using root mean square error(RMSE)and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)to evaluate the predictive ability of the two models,exploring more effective performance prediction methods and providing a theoretical reference for future preparation for important competitions.

关 键 词：游泳成绩 发展趋势 成绩预测 

分 类 号：G861.1[文化科学—体育训练]