第11-19届亚运会游泳成绩发展趋势研究--基于灰色GM(1,1)多维模型  

Research on Development Trend of Swimming Performance in the 11 to 19 Asian Games--Based on GM(1,1)Multidimensional Model

作　　者：杨中秀 栗玉玉 涂春景 YANG Zhong-xiu;Li Yu-yu;TU Chun-jing(Zhejiang College Of Sports,Hangzhou 310012,China;College of Physical Education,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou 311121,China;Physical Education College,Taizhou University,Taizhou 318000,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江体育职业技术学院,浙江杭州310012 [2]杭州师范大学体育学院,浙江杭州311121 [3]台州学院体育教育系,浙江台州318000

出　　处：《浙江体育科学》2024年第4期62-68,共7页Zhejiang Sport Science

基　　金：国家体育总局科技创新项目(科技成果转化项目)(23KJCX039)。

摘　　要：以1990年北京至2023年杭州亚运会的历次游泳冠军成绩为时间序列,构建多维灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,探索亚运会游泳成绩内在规律和发展趋势,为各国备战2026年第20届亚运会及33届、34届奥运会提供参考。结果显示:①杭州亚运会游泳奖牌主要由中、日、韩获得,其中中国在亚洲泳坛占据顶尖地位,而浙江籍运动员是其中的重要力量。②第11-19届亚运会游泳成绩总体呈稳步提高趋势,且19届亚运会后游泳成绩仍将处于较快提高时期。③亚洲游泳与奥运游泳成绩差距总体呈缩小趋势,亚洲运动员在未来奥运会上将取得越来越好的成绩,其中在即将到来的巴黎奥运会上,预计中国男子在4×100m混合泳接力、200m自由泳和蛙泳项目中以及女子在蝶泳和个人混合泳项目中具备较大的夺金、夺牌潜力,应有针对性地加强这些项目的训练。The multi-dimensional grey GM(1,1)prediction model was constructed with the results of swimming champions from the 1990 to 2023 Asian Games in Hangzhou as a time series to explore the internal rule and development trend of swimming performance in Asian Games and provide a reference for countries to prepare for the 20th Asian Games in 2026 and the 33rd、34th Olympic Games.The results show that:①The swimming MEDALS in Hangzhou Asian Games are mainly won by China,Japan,and South Korea,among which China occupies the top position in the Asian swimming world,and the athletes from Zhejiang are an important force.②The overall swimming performance of the 11th to 19th Asian Games showed a steady improvement trend,and the swimming performance will still be in a period of rapid improvement after the 19th Asian Games.③The overall performance gap between Asian swimming and Olympic swimming shows a narrowing trend.Asian athletes will get better and better results in the future Olympic Games.In the upcoming Paris Olympic Games,it is expected that Chinese men will win the 4×100m medley relay and 200m freestyle and breaststroke events.Women in the butterfly and individual medley events have a large gold and medal potential and should be targeted to strengthen the training of these events.

关 键 词：亚运会 游泳成绩 发展趋势 

分 类 号：G861.1[文化科学—体育训练]