1990—2019年四个不同社会人口指数国家10~49岁人群HIV/AIDS疾病负担分析以及模型预测  

Analysis and model prediction of the burden of HIV/AIDS among the population aged 10-49 in four different SDI countries in 1990-2019

作　　者：倪文婷 王沿 单亦凡 杨驰 武颂文 NI Wenting;WANG Yan;SHAN Yifan;YANG Chi;WU Songwen(School of Public Health,Xi′an Medical College,Xian,Shaanxi 710021,China)

机构地区：[1]西安医学院公共卫生学院,陕西西安710021

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2024年第4期6-10,共5页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：省级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202311840073);西安医学院教育教学改革研究项目(2022JG-41)。

摘　　要：目的 了解1990—2019年四个不同社会人口指数(Socio-Demographic Index,SDI)国家(中国、美国、俄罗斯、阿富汗)HIV/AIDS疾病负担及归因于各类危险因素的疾病负担,并预测2020—2029年HIV/AIDS归因疾病负担。方法 采用2019全球疾病负担研究数据,描述并比较四国HIV/AIDS发病、患病、死亡、DALYs情况;比较1990年和2019年四国HIV/AIDS不同年龄段归因于各类危险因素的标化DALYs率;利用R4.3.0构建自回归滑动平均混合模型预测未来十年各国归因疾病负担。结果 与1990年相比,2019年除美国外,中国和其他两国标化发病率、标化患病率、标化死亡率和标化DALYs率均呈增长水平。10~49岁人群是疾病负担重点人群,不同国家不同年龄段人群疾病负担的主要危险因素不同。自回归滑动平均混合模型预测,俄罗斯未来十年的主要危险因素是注射毒品,其他三国为不安全性行为。结论 全球和四个不同SDI国家不同性别和年龄组的疾病负担及其危险因素之间存在差异。应充分考虑差异来确定HIV/AIDS防治的工作重点,合理分配卫生资源。Objective To understand the HIV/AIDS burden and the disease burden attributed to various risk factors in four countries with different socio-demographic index(SDI)(China,the United States,Russia,and Afghanistan) from 1990 to 2019,and to predict the HIV/AIDS attributable disease burden from 2020 to 2029.Methods The 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study data was used to describe and compare the incidence,prevalence,death,and DALYs of HIV/AIDS in the four countries.The standardized DALYs attributed to various risk factors in different age groups of HIV/AIDS in the four countries in 1990 and 2019 were compared.R4.3.0 was used to construct an autoregressive moving average mixed model to predict the attributable disease burden in each country over the next decade.Results Compared with 1990,in 2019,the standardized incidence rate,standardized prevalence rate,standardized mortality rate,and standardized DALYs rate in China and the other two countries,except the United States,showed an increase.People aged 10 to 49 years old were a key group for disease burden,and the main risk factors for disease burden varied among different countries and age groups.The autoregressive moving average mixed model predicted that the main risk factor for Russia in the next decade would be injecting drugs,while unsafe sexual behavior would occur in the other three countries.Conclusion There are differences in disease burden and risk factors among different genders and age groups globally and in the four different SDI countries.Therefore,differences should be fully considered to determine the focus of HIV/AIDS prevention and control and rationally allocate health resources.

关 键 词：艾滋病 疾病负担 伤残调整寿命年 Jointpoint回归 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]