2010—2022年南通市流行性感冒流行趋势的Joinpoint回归分析  

Joinpoint regression analysis on the epidemiological trend of influenza in Nantong City,Jiangsu Province in 2010-2022

作　　者：苗峻峰 魏叶[1] 鲍超 MIAO Junfeng;WEI Ye;BAO Chao(Nantong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nantong,Jiangsu 226000,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省南通市疾病预防控制中心,江苏南通226000

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2024年第4期32-36,共5页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的 分析南通市流行性感冒(以下简称流感)的流行特征,探讨其变化趋势,为防控措施提供有效依据。方法 收集2010—2022年南通市流感的发病报告数据,利用统计学软件对其进行描述性分析,运用Joinpoint回归模型分析其变化趋势。结果 南通市2010—2022年流感年报告发病率呈现指数上升趋势(APC=25.25,P=0.002);男性的年报告发病率高于女性,两者的发病趋势与总体一致呈现指数上升趋势(男性:APC=24.40,P=0.002;女性:APC=26.11,P=0.002);季节指数呈现单峰分布,12月至次年2月为高峰期,其中1月份最高为2.78;各年龄组平均年报告发病率呈现0~7岁快速上升趋势(β_(1)=16.13,P<0.001),7~10岁断崖式下降(β_(1)=-44.50,P=0.037),10~45岁低位缓慢下降趋势(β_(1)=-0.20,P=0.001),45~85岁呈现低位的拖尾现象(β_(1)=0.04,P=0.162)。结论 南通市流行性感冒发病率总体呈现上升趋势,7岁以下儿童是重点保护人群,应把控关键的季节期,做好宣传教育,鼓励疫苗接种,同时做好病原监测,及时关注流行毒株情况,科学防控。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Nantong city,explore its changing trend,and provide evidence for effective prevention and control measures.Methods The incidence data of influenza in Nantong city from 2010 to 2022 were collected and analyzed by descriptive statistical software.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of influenza incidence.Results The annual reported incidence of influenza in Nantong city showed an exponential upward trend from 2010 to 2022(APC=25.25,P=0.002).The annual reported incidence rate of males was higher than that of females,and the incidence trend of both showed an exponential upward trend(Male:APC=24.40,P=0.002;Female:APC=26.11,P=0.002).The seasonal index showed a unimodal distribution,with a peak from December to February of the next year,and the highest value was 2.78 in January.The average annual reported incidence in each age group showed a rapid upward trend from 0 to 7 years old(β_(1) =16.13,P<0.001),a cliff decline from 7 to 10 years old(β_(1) =-44.50,P=0.037),and a low slow downward trend from 10 to 45 years old(β_(1) =-0.20,P=0.001),and lower tailing was observed in 45-85 years group(β_(1) =0.04,P=0.162).Conclusion The overall incidence rate of influenza in Nantong City is on the rise.Children under 7 years old are the key protected population.We should control the key season,do a good job of publicity and education,encourage vaccination,and at the same time do a good job in pathogen monitoring,timely pay attention to the situation of epidemic strains,and scientific prevention and control.

关 键 词：流行性感冒 Joinpoint回归分析 趋势分析 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]