LNG国际贸易合同变化浅析  

A Brief Analysis of Changes in LNG International Trade Contracts

作　　者：周颖 Zhou Ying(Guangdong Energy Group Natural Gas Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou Guangdong 510620)

机构地区：[1]广东能源集团天然气有限公司,广东广州510620

出　　处：《中外能源》2024年第7期17-21,共5页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：液化天然气(LNG)国际贸易经过60年的发展,全球年贸易量已超过4×108t。在此期间,LNG上下游项目的商业模式、合同架构等诸多方面也经历了不断演化。在相当长时间内,LNG国际贸易以长期合同为主,对买家的条款约束较多,条款灵活性差。近年来,随着LNG国际贸易市场的成熟,以及中国等新兴LNG买家的成长和市场话语权提升,全球LNG贸易格局重塑加快,贸易模式也越发灵活,在长协合同的交付模式、贸易量、商务条款和价格公式等方面均呈现多变和灵活的特性,同时LNG现货和短期合同贸易也呈现稳步增长的态势。业界虽然看好中长期LNG消费市场发展前景,但世界经济增长复苏乏力和地缘政治事件也同时影响着短期内的LNG供需关系变化。预计短期内我国天然气市场将进入供需平稳新阶段,国内天然气供应将相对宽松,天然气采购价格将基本延续稳定。国内LNG贸易商应适时开展天然气优化策略,利用进口气和国产气的配合,寻找最大价值的优化;有能源保障压力的企业应采取以长协合同为主、积极发展现货和短期贸易合同为辅的策略;同时要做好LNG贸易数字化转型的准备。After 60 years of development,the global annual trade volume of liquefied natural gas(LNG)has exceeded 4x10t.During this period,the businessmodel,contract structure,and other aspects of LNG upstream and downstream projects have continuously evolved.For a long time,LNG international trade has been dominated by long-term contracts,which imposed many restrictions on buyers and had poor flexibility.In recent years,with the maturity of the LNG international trade market,the growth and market voice of emerging LNG buyers such as China,the global LNG trade pattern has been reshaped faster and the trade model has become more flexible.The delivery mode,trade volume,commercial terms,and price formula of long-term contracts have shown changeable and flexible characteristics.At the same time,LNG spot and short-term contract trade have also shown a steady growth trend.Although the industry is optimistic about the development prospects of the medium-and long-term LNGconsumption market,the weak recovery of world economic growth and geopolitical events also affect the changes in the supply and demand relationship of LNG in the short term.It is expected that China's natural gas market will enter a new stage of stable supply and demand in the short term,domestic natural gas supply will be relatively loose,and natural gas procurement prices will remain stable.DomesticLNG traders should develop natural gas optimization strategies promptly,using the combination of imported gas and domestic gas to find the optimization with the greatest value;enterprises with energy security pressure should adopt a strategy of mainly long-term contracts and actively developing spot and short-term trade contracts as a supplement;at the same time,they should be prepared for the digital transformation of LNG trade.

关 键 词：LNG国际贸易 长协合同 条款灵活性 交付模式 价格公式 现货贸易 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F742