基于我国天然气价格模式的储气能力价值评估模型研究  

A model to assess gas storage capability based on the gas pricing mode in China

作　　者：王盟浩 李森圣 陈灿[1] 陈怡丹 王瀚悦 李映霏[1] 谢雯洁 WANG Menghao;LI Sensheng;CHEN Can;CHEN Yidan;WANG Hanyue;LI Yingfei;XIE Wenjie(Research Institute of Natural Gas Economy,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;Si-chuan Chuangang Gas Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;New Energy Division,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田公司天然气经济研究所,四川成都610051 [2]四川川港燃气有限责任公司,四川成都610051 [3]中国石油西南油气田公司新能源事业部,四川成都610051

出　　处：《天然气技术与经济》2024年第3期40-47,共8页Natural Gas Technology and Economy

基　　金：中国石油天然气股份有限公司西南油气田分公司科研项目“西南油气田适应天然气价格市场化改革的方案和策略研究”(编号:2024D110-01-04)。

摘　　要：储气库通过天然气价格波动进行买入卖出天然气获取收益的价值属性被称为其金融价值。通过储气库业务获取收益,储气能力具有的金融价值是重要的研究对象。为了提升储气库的金融价值,基于欧美与国内天然气价格模式的差异分析,对储气库的金融价值评估模型方法进行了探讨,提出了国内天然气市场不同发展阶段适用的储气能力价值评估思路,并建立了历史价格模型并用于低市场化程度下的储气库金融价值评估。研究结果表明:①欧美高市场化程度的价格模式具有高波动性与高流动性特征,而国内现存两种价格模式则呈低波动性与低流动性特征;②考虑国内价格模式现有特征及未来变化,建立历史价格模型用于低市场化价格模式下的储气库价值评估,使用最小二乘蒙特卡洛模型作为价格模式市场化程度提高后的评估方法;③历史价格模型的主要特点为:针对单一历史价格曲线进行计算,同时适用于变化的交易周期。价格模式市场化程度越低,历史价格模型评估结果越可靠;④历史价格模型能够适用于国内现有价格模式的储气库价值评估,可捕捉价格高点与低点最优工作气量路径,并计算相应现金流。For underground gas storages(UGSs),the value property to make a profit from natural-gas trade through pricing fluctuation is known as the financial value.And this value in storage capability is important for the profit made via UGS business.So,pricing discrepancies among Europe,America and China were analyzed to further discuss assessment models on the financial value in order for UGS's value promotion.Moreover,some assessment ideas about this capability,which are also applicable to different development stages in China's gas market,were put forward,and a historical pricing model was built for this assessment at low degree of marketization.Results show that(i)the pricing modes in Europe and Ameri-ca at high marketization are characterized by high fluctuation and mobility,while the mode in China with low characteris-tics;(ii)taken these low fluctuation and mobility together with future changes into account,the built historical pricing mod-el may be used to evaluate the financial value at low marketization,and the least square Monte Carlo simulation is regard-ed as another evaluation model for the improved price marketization;(iii)the historical model has its own features,such as calculation only for a single curve on historical price and functionality at the variable trading cycle.The lower the marketi-zation is,the more credible the model evaluation is;and(iv)this pricing model is able to be applied to the value assess-ment on China's UGSs under existing pricing mode,capture the optimal working gas capacity at the high-and low-record price,and calculate relevant cash flow.

关 键 词：储气库 金融价值 价值评估 天然气价格模式 天然气市场化 交易中心 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F764.1F224