美联储调息与人民币汇率变化研究  

The Study of the Fed’s Interest Rate Adjustment and theRMB Exchange Rate Change

作　　者：江世银[1] 刘莹[1] 李洁[1] JIANG Shiyin;LIU Ying;LI Jie(School of Finance,Nanjing Audit University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211815,China)

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学金融学院,江苏南京211815

出　　处：《金融教育研究》2024年第4期3-13,共11页Research of Finance and Education

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“依法规范和引导资本健康发展研究”(2023149)。

摘　　要：为改善高通货膨胀的经济环境,2022年美联储宣布加息,不仅影响美国国内而且影响了包括中国在内的开放型经济国家。为提高实证分析结论的准确性,通过构建VAR模型,以此轮美联储加息为背景,选取2006年1月至2023年8月美元兑人民币汇率以及美国联邦基金利率等数据,逐步研究美联储调整利率后部分变量对人民币汇率的影响。研究结果表明,美联储调息的直接影响效果最为显著,且短期的影响效应大于长期。为此,在新发展阶段下,应建立强大的宏观审慎监管体系,适时干预外汇市场,以促进汇率改革与人民币汇率稳定。In order to improve the high inflation economic environment,the Federal Reserve announced interest rate hikes in 2022,which not only affected the United States but also open economy countries including China.In order to improve the accuracy of empirical analysis conclusions,a VAR model was constructed.Against the background of this round of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve,data such as the US dollar to RMB exchange rate from January 2006 to August 2023 and the US federal funds rate were selected to gradually study the impact of some variables after the Federal Reserve adjusted interest rates on the RMB exchange rate.The research results indicate that the direct impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate adjustment is the most significant,and the short-term impact is greater than the long-term.Therefore,in the new stage of development,a strong macro prudential regulatory system should be established,and timely intervention in the foreign exchange market should be made to promote exchange rate reform and stability of the RMB exchange rate.

关 键 词：美联储调息 人民币汇率 传导机制 防范对策 

分 类 号：F830.73[经济管理—金融学]