气候变化对丹顶鹤秋季迁徙路线潜在生境适宜性的影响  

Impacts of climate change on potential habitat suitability of red-crowned cranes in the autumn migration

作　　者：张博鑫 李崇林 左小康 那晓东[1] ZHANG Boxin;LI Chonglin;ZUO Xiaokang;NA Xiaodong(School of Geographical Sciences,Harbin Normal University,Harbin 150025,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院,哈尔滨150025

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第12期5194-5205,共12页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：黑龙江省优秀青年科学基金项目资助(YQ2020D005);黑龙江省大学生创新创业项目资助(S202210231033)。

摘　　要：目前全球变暖趋势的加剧对丹顶鹤等大型濒危水禽的栖息地造成了严重的威胁。由于监测方法和技术手段的限制,丹顶鹤在迁徙路线上潜在生境的分布范围尚不清楚,气候变化对丹顶鹤迁徙路线生境适宜性的影响机理有待进一步研究。基于138个丹顶鹤样本分布信息和19种环境变量数据,利用BIOMOD2软件包构建了丹顶鹤潜在生境评价的组合模型,对丹顶鹤在亚洲东部秋季迁徙路线上的生境适宜性进行数值模拟,并预测SSP1.2-6气候背景下2021—2040年、2041—2060年、2061—2080年、2081—2100年四个不同阶段的丹顶鹤潜在生境范围的变化趋势。研究结果表明:与单模型的模拟结果相比,集成9种单模型的BIOMOD2组合模型预测精度更高。集成模型的重要性分析表明,气温日较差是丹顶鹤生境适宜性变化的最重要的影响因子。受气候变化的影响2021—2040年、2041—2060年、2061—2080年、2081—2100年丹顶鹤潜在生境的面积将分别减少到2.60×10^(5)km^(2)、2.58×10^(5)km^(2)、2.75×10^(5)km^(2)、2.56×10^(5)km^(2),迁徙路线上胶东半岛和环渤海地区适栖生境面积减少的最为显著。本研究对于迁徙路线上珍稀水禽潜在适宜生境的模拟及全球变化背景下珍稀水禽栖息地的保育和修复具有重要意义。As a result of global climate warming,the habitat of endangered waterfowl has been threatened such as the red-crowned cranes.Due to the limitation of the monitoring methods and techniques,the spatial distribution extent of potential habitat in the migration routes of red-crowned crane is unclear,and the impact mechanism of climate change on habitat suitability of red-crowned cranes in migration routes needs to be further studied.On the basis of 138 red-crowned crane samples and 19 environmental variables,an ensemble model was constructed to assess the habitat suitability of the redcrowned cranes in the autumn migration routine of East Asia based on the BIOMOD2 software package.Under the future climate trends of SSP1.2-6,the suitable red-crowned cranes habitats in four different periods(2021--2040,2041--2060,2061——2080,2081--2100)were predicted.The results showed that:(1)The ensemble BIOMOD2 model produced more accurate simulated results compared with the single species distribution model.The most important environmental factors which affected the habitat suitability of red-crowned cranes were elevation above sea level and diurnal temperature range.(2)The simulated area of suitable habitat in the migration route of red-crowned crane is 5.23×10^(5) km^(2) at present.Under the impacts of climate changes,the potential suitable habitat area will reduce to 2.60×10^(5) km^(2),2.58×10^(5) km^(2),2.75×10^(5) km^(2),2.56×10^(5) km^(2) in 2021——2040,2041——2060,2081——2080,and 2081——2100,respectively.The area of potential suitable habitats in the migration route will decrease with a range of 8.94%and 14.39%in the future.(3)The predicted suitable habitats in the migration route were mainly distributed in the Zhalong wetland reserve in Heilongjiang Province,the coastal areas along the lower reaches of Liaoning Province,the Bohai Rim,the Yellow River Delta nature reserve in Shandong Province,the Yancheng wetland reserve in Jiangsu Province,the Yellow River and Danjiang wetland reserves in Henan Province,

关 键 词：丹顶鹤 迁徙路径 集成物种分布模型 适宜生境 气候变化 

分 类 号：Q958[生物学—动物学]