气候变化对商洛旱地冬小麦农艺性状的影响  

The Impact of Climate Change on The Agronomic Traits of Winter Wheat in The Dryland of Shangluo

作　　者：敬樊 李勇刚 王静之 张军[2] 吴秀宁[2] 雷蕾 李晓静 JING Fan;LI Yonggang;Wang Jingzhi;ZHANG Jun;WU Xiuning;Lei Lei;Li Xiaojing(Shangluo Agricultural Science Institute,Shangluo 726000,China;Shangluo University,Shangluo 726000,China;Shangluo Meteorological Bureau,Shangluo 726000,China)

机构地区：[1]商洛市农业科学研究所,陕西商洛726000 [2]商洛学院,陕西商洛726000 [3]商洛市气象局,陕西商洛726000

出　　处：《山西农业科学》2024年第4期84-91,共8页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：陕西省农业协同创新与推广联盟科技项目(LM20160011)。

摘　　要：研究近年来气候变化对商洛旱地冬小麦农艺性状的影响,旨在为商洛旱地冬小麦适应气候变化新品种选育提供理论指导。利用2010—2023年陕南丘陵地区商洛亚区小麦区域试验商州点记录的小麦品种小偃15农艺性状数据和商洛气象资料,统计分析小麦农艺性状和气候变化的趋势,并进行相关性、多元回归和通径分析。结果表明,近年来商洛年降水量、年平均气温以及小麦生育期降水量、气温均呈上升趋势;小麦不同生育阶段中,播种至越冬前、越冬期间、返青至孕穗期的降水量均呈上升趋势,而抽穗至成熟期降水量呈下降趋势;小麦各生育阶段的气温均呈上升趋势;小麦农艺性状穗长、穗粒数、千粒质量、有效穗数、产量均呈上升趋势,而生育期和株高呈下降趋势。相关性分析结果发现,全生育期平均气温与穗长呈极显著正相关,与穗粒数和产量均呈显著正相关,而与生育期呈极显著负相关;返青至孕穗期气温与生育期呈显著负相关;越冬期间降水量与穗长呈显著正相关;产量与穗长和穗粒数均呈极显著正相关。多元回归和通径分析结果发现,穗长、千粒质量、穗粒数、全生育期平均气温是决定产量的4个主要因子,它们共同决定了产量90.80%的变异。综合以上分析,为适应商洛地区气候变化,旱地小麦新品种选育过程中要重点关注穗长、穗粒数和生育期等性状。In this study,the impact of climate change on the agronomic traits of winter wheat in Shangluo dryland in recent years was researched,aiming to provide theoretical guidance for the breeding for new varieties of Shangluo dryland winter wheat that adapts to climate change.Using the agronomic traits data of wheat variety Xiaoyan15 at the Shangzhou site of the wheat regional trial in the Shangluo sub-region of the hilly areas of southern Shaanxi from 2010 to 2023 and meteorological data of Shangluo,the trend of wheat agronomic traits and climate change were statistically analyzed,and correlation,multiple regression,and path analysis were conducted.The results showed that the annual precipitation and average temperature of Shangluo,as well as the precipitation and temperature during the wheat growth period in Shangluo,had all shown an upward trend in recent years.At different growth stages of wheat,the precipitation from sowing to overwintering,overwintering,and from turning green to booting all showed an upward trend,while the precipitation from heading to maturity showed a downward trend.The temperature at each growth stage of wheat showed an upward trend.The agronomic traits of wheat,such as spike length,grains per spike,thousand grain weight,effective spike number,and yield,all showed an upward trend,while the growth period and plant height showed a downward trend.Correlation analysis found that the average temperature during the whole growth period had extremely significantly positive correlation with spike length,significantly positive correlation with grains per spike and yield,and extremely significantly negative correlation with growth period.The temperature from turning green to booting had significantly negative correlation with the growth period.The precipitation during overwintering had significantly positive correlation with spike length.And there was an extremely significantly positive correlation between yield and spike length and grains per spike.Multiple regression and path analysis revealed that spi

关 键 词：冬小麦 降水量 气温 农艺性状 商洛旱地 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学]