不同气候环境条件时黑荆和银荆在中国的潜在分布区预测  

Predicting the Potential Distribution Areas of Acacia mearnsii and Acacia dealbata in China Under Different Climatic Conditions

作　　者：贺娜 王洋 刘凌 户连荣 张知晓 马惠芬 季梅 He Na;Wang Yang;Liu Ling;Hu Lianrong;Zhang Zhixiao;Ma Huifen;Ji Mei(Yunnan Academy of Forestry and Grassland,Kunming 650201,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]云南省林业和草原科学院,昆明650201

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2024年第8期78-84,94,共8页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：云南省林业外来物种调查与研究项目(KJZXSA202013)。

摘　　要：以388个黑荆(Acacia mearnsii)和477个银荆(Acacia dealbata)分布点数据为数据基础,依据筛选出的气候环境因子(黑荆13个、银荆12个)构建黑荆和银荆在中国潜在分布区的评价指标体系;以适生性指数(IA)0A≤0.20(不适生区)、0.20A≤0.40(低适生区)、0.40A≤0.60(较适生区)、0.60A≤1.00(最适生区)为划分依据,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt3.4.1)和地理信息系统软件(ArcGIS10.5)相结合方法,选择第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)划分的环境模式中两种环境模式(低强迫气候环境条件(SSP1-2.6)、高强迫气候环境条件(SSP5-8.5)),分析黑荆和银荆在中国当前(1950-2020年)及2021-2040年、2041-2060年、2061-2080年、2081-2100年气候环境条件时的潜在分布。结果表明:(1)最大熵模型预测的模型精度均大于0.9,表明模型预测结果极好,可信度极高。(2)影响黑荆分布的主要环境因子为年均温、年降水量、最冷月份最低温、等温性,影响银荆分布的主要环境因子为最冷月份最低温、年均温、最冷季降水量、年降水量。(3)在当前和未来气候环境条件时,黑荆和银荆均适宜在中国的西南和沿海等温暖湿润地区分布,如西藏最南部、云南、贵州、四川南部、福建和台湾地区;而中国西北、东北等冬季严寒地区均为不适生区。Based on a dataset comprising 388 occurrences of Acacia mearnsii and 477 occurrences of Acacia dealbata,an evalua⁃tion index system for the potential distribution areas of A.mearnsii and A.dealbata in China was constructed using selected climatic environmental factors(13 for A.mearnsii and 12 for A.dealbata).The potential distribution areas were categorized into suitability index(IA)classes:0<IA≤0.20(unsuitable area),0.20<IA≤0.40(low suitability area),0.40<IA≤0.60(moderate suitability area),and 0.60<IA≤1.00(high suitability area).The MaxEnt3.4.1 model and ArcGIS10.5 software were employed in conjunction with two environmental scenarios derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)(low forcing climate scenario(SSP1-2.6)and high forcing climate scenario(SSP5-8.5))to analyze the potential distribution of A.mearnsii and A.dealbata under current(1950-2020)and future(2021-2040,2041-2060,2061-2080,2081-2100)climatic conditions in China.The results showed that:(1)The model accuracy of the MaxEnt3.4.1 model predictions exceeded 0.9,suggesting excellent model prediction results with high reliability.(2)The main environmental factors influencing the distribution of A.mearnsii were mean annual temperature,annual precipitation,minimum temperature of the coldest month,and isothermality,while the main environmental factors influencing the distri⁃bution of A.dealbata were the minimum temperature of the coldest month,mean annual temperature,precipitation of the coldest quarter,and annual precipitation.(3)Under current and future climatic conditions,both A.mearnsii and A.deal⁃bata are suitable for distribution in warm and humid regions in southwestern and coastal China,such as the southernmost part of Tibet,Yunnan,Guizhou,southern Sichuan,Fujian,and Taiwan region,while regions with severe winter cold,such as northwest and northeast China,are unsuitable areas.

关 键 词：黑荆 银荆 气候环境变化 潜在分布区 中国 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学]