黄河流域用水现状及需水预测研究  

Study on the Current Situation of Water Use and Water Demand Forecast in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：李嘉欣 彭少明 LI Jiaxin;PENG Shaoming(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design of MWR,Beijing 100120,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南郑州450001 [2]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100120

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第7期66-71,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51879240);河南省重大公益专项(201300311400)。

摘　　要：为深入探讨黄河流域的用水现状,并评估未来需水规模,根据1988—2021年用水资料,对黄河流域用水现状进行分析,并运用Holt线性趋势法、GM(1,1)灰色预测模型、定额法和多元线性回归方法对黄河流域2035年需水量进行预测,结果表明:黄河流域1988—2021年用水总量大致分为大幅度降低阶段(1988—2003年)、快速上升阶段(2004—2015年)和波动降低阶段(2016—2021年)3个阶段;流域用水结构变化显著,农业用水量和工业用水量比例呈下降趋势,年均下降率分别为0.83%和0.53%;在4种预测方法中,多元线性回归模型预测效果最好,2035年需水量预测值为537.41亿m^(3),需水量的增长将带来较大的水资源供应压力,对水资源的可持续利用构成威胁。The purpose of this study is to investigate the current water use situation of the Yellow River Basin and to assess the scale of future water demand.Based on water consumption data from 1988 to 2021,the current water consumption situation in the Yellow River Basin was analyzed,and the Holt linear trend method,the GM(1,1)grey prediction model,the quota method and the multiple linear regression meth-od were used to forecast the water demand in the Yellow River Basin in 2035.The results show that the growth of total water use in the Yellow River Basin from 1988 to 2021 shows three stages of a substantial reduction stage(1988-2003),a rapid growth stage(2004-2015)and a slow reduction stage(2016-2021);The structure of water use in the basin has changed significantly,with the proportion of water used in ag-riculture and industry declining significantly,with an average annual decline rate of 0.83%and 0.53%respectively;Among the four predic-tion methods,the multiple linear regression prediction is better,with a predicted water demand of 53.741 billion m^(3)in 2035.The increase in water demand may lead to greater pressure on water supply and pose a threat to the sustainability of water resources.

关 键 词：需水预测 定额法 多元线性回归方法 灰色预测模型 黄河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV882.1