煤矿智能化项目风险评价云模型及其应用  

Cloud model for risk evaluation of coal mine intelligent projects and its application

作　　者：李长明 赵开功 张晓蕾 王睿迪 李严肃 LI Changming;ZHAO Kaigong;ZHANG Xiaolei;WANG Ruidi;LI Yansu(National Energy Network Information Technology(Beijing)Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100011,China;School of Civil and Resource Engineering,Beijing University of Science and Technology,Beijing 100083,China;School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]国能数智科技开发(北京)有限公司,北京100011 [2]北京科技大学土木与资源工程学院,北京100083 [3]中国矿业大学(北京)应急管理与安全工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第5期168-174,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC08008300)。

摘　　要：为解决煤矿智能化项目风险评价过程中,指标量化困难和评价系统难以兼顾随机性和模糊性的问题,采用云模型理论,对系统进行定量综合评价。首先,基于煤矿智能化系统建设项目进行多维度分析,建立项目风险多指标多维度的评价体系;然后,运用层次分析法(AHP)确定主观权重,CRITIC法确定客观权重,通过组合赋权方式确定指标权重矩阵;采用云模型实现指标定量与定性之间的转换,完成煤矿智能化项目的风险评价,并根据评价结果提出针对性的政策建议,最大程度降低项目现有风险;最后,以国家能源集团某煤矿为例,开展煤矿智能化项目建设和实施过程的风险评价,验证文中所提方法的科学性和有效性。结果表明:云模型可定量评价煤矿智能化项目风险,评价结果有助于化解现场风险隐患,提高风险管控能力,且具有一定的科学性和有效性。In order to solve the problems of difficulty in quantifying the indicators and difficulty in taking into account randomness and fuzziness in the evaluation process of the risk of the coal mine intelligentization project,the cloud model theory was adopted to carry out a quantitative and comprehensive evaluation of the system.First of all,based on the coal mine informationization system construction project,a multi-dimensional analysis was carried out to establish a multi-indicator and multi-dimensional evaluation system of the project risk.Then,the combination of hierarchical analysis(AHP)method and criteria importance though intercrieria correlation(CRITIC)method was used to assign weights,determine the weight matrix of the indicators,and the cloud model was used to realize the conversion between the quantitative and qualitative indicators,to complete the evaluation of the risk of the coal mine intelligence project,and to put forward the targeted policy according to the evaluation results.The cloud model was used to realize the quantitative and qualitative conversion of indicators,complete the risk evaluation of the coal mine intelligentization project,and put forward targeted policies based on the evaluation results to minimize the existing risks of the project.Finally,taking a coal mine of National Energy Group as an example,the risk evaluation of the construction and implementation process of coal mine intelligentization project was carried out.The results show that the cloud model can realize the quantitative evaluation of project risks,and the results of risk evaluation coincide with the actual situation on the site;the results of risk evaluation can help to solve the hidden risks on the site and improve the ability of risk control.

关 键 词：煤矿智能化 项目风险评价 云模型 权重 评价等级 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]