考虑乡镇集市影响的穿村镇公路事故风险因素辨识  

Identification of risk factors for through-village highway accidents considering influence of township fairs

作　　者：戢晓峰[1,2] 李金 卢梦媛 韩春阳 覃文文[1,2] JI Xiaofeng;LI Jin;LU Mengyuan;HAN Chunyang;QIN Wenwen(Faculty of Transportation Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650500,China;Yunnan Modern Logistics Engineering Research Center,Kunming Yunnan 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学交通工程学院,云南昆明650500 [2]云南省现代物流工程研究中心,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第5期214-222,共9页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(52062024);云南省交通运输厅科技创新及示范项目(2023-83(二))。

摘　　要：为了改善乡镇集市与穿村镇公路耦合区域的交通安全,以云南省某二级公路穿村镇路段为研究对象,依据乡镇居民可承受出行距离与集市最大交易半径,界定集市核心区与集市辐射区,选取人、车、路、环境、管理及事故形态6个维度的29个风险因素,采用基于关联规则的风险因素辨识模型构建穿村镇公路事故风险因素网络,分析网络拓扑结构特征获取事故关键风险因素。结果表明:集日穿村镇公路事故时空集聚特征显著,且集市核心区交通冲突更为严重,伤人事故概率为57.99%,是事故的主要风险因素,对事故风险传播具有主导作用;直穿村镇路段交通标志缺失与缓坡路段会车不当分别是财产损失事故与伤人事故的直接风险因素;整体上,驾驶员因素平均聚类系数最大,易产生连锁反应,在集市核心区涉及驾驶员会车不当和未按规定让行时,伤人事故概率分别增加23.71%和21.07%。In order to improve traffic safety in the coupling area of the township fair and through-village highway,a secondary road through villages and towns in Yunnan Province was taken as the research object.The core area and the radiation area of the fair were defined according to the affordable travel distance of the township residents and the maximum trading radius of the fair.On this basis,29 risk factors in 6 dimensions of people,vehicles,roads,environment,management and accident form were selected.The risk factor identification model based on association rules was used to construct the risk factor network of highway accidents through villages and towns.By analyzing the characteristics of network topology,accident risk factors were identified.The results show that the traffic conflict in the core area of the fair is more serious,and the probability of injury accidents is 57.99%.The core area of the township fair is the primary risk factor for accidents and plays a leading role in the spread of accident risks.The types of direct risk factors for property loss accidents and injury accidents are heterogeneous.Overall,the average clustering coefficient of driver factors is the largest,which makes it easy to produce a chain reaction.In the core area of the fair,the probability of injury accidents increases by 23.71%and 21.07%,respectively,when the driver's meeting vehicles are improper,and the driver does not give way according to the regulations.

关 键 词：穿村镇公路事故 乡镇集市 集市影响范围 风险因素 辨识模型 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]