北上台风“暹芭”强降水成因分析及预报检验  

Cause Analysis and Forecast Verification of Heavy Precipitation Caused by the Northward Typhoon Chaba

作　　者：杨瑞雯 曲荣强[1] 谭政华 张宸赫 于亚鑫 YANG Ruiwen;QU Rongqiang;TAN Zhenghua;ZHANG Chenhe;YU Yaxin(Liaoning Meteorological Observation,Shenyang Liaoning 110166)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象台,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《现代农业科技》2024年第13期108-115,共8页Modern Agricultural Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所项目“不同模式的北上台风预报误差分析”(2021SYIAEKFMS06);中国气象局复盘总结专项“台风‘卡努’残涡背景下的强降水可预报性研究”(FPZJ2024-028);中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所项目“变性台风并入东北冷涡的演变特征及作用机理研究”(2020SYIAE04)。

摘　　要：2022年第3号台风“暹芭”停编后北上再次加强引发辽宁地区大范围降水天气过程,但业务数值模式对其预报存在一定偏差。为深入了解数值模式对于北上台风的预报性能,利用ERA5再分析数据、ECMWF模式预报等资料对北上台风“暹芭”再次加强产生的极端暴雨进行预报检验和诊断分析。结果表明:经传统和MODE检验,CMA-MESO 3km模式在强降水阈值(50.0 mm)下的TS评分值比ECMWF模式高,同时其漏报率较高,ECMWF模式预报的强降水落区与实况最相似,但二者对于辽宁东部暴雨均出现漏报;副热带高压西进与高空槽之间西南急流建立,引导暖湿气流向北输送,有利于台风“暹芭”北上再次加强;冷暖平流交汇处的能量锋区对强降水有较好的指示作用,但模式预报的冷暖平流强度偏弱,锋生区较实况偏东南;辽宁中西部有一条呈西南—东北向的强水汽辐合带,ECMWF模式对于辽宁东部地区的强水汽辐合中心预报偏弱。After the numbering was stopped,the third typhoon Chaba strengthened once again as it moved northward in 2022,which caused a large-scale precipitation weather process in Liaoning Province.However,the numerical prediction model had some deviations in its forecast.In order to further understand the prediction performance of numerical model for northern typhoon,ERA5 interim reanalysis data,ECMWF model forecast and other data were used to test and diagnosis the extreme rainstorm caused by the northward typhoon Chaba.The results of both traditional verification and the MODE verification showed that,under heavy precipitation threshold(50.0 mm),the TS score of CMA-MESO 3km model was higher than that of ECMWF model,and had relatively high missing report rate.The ECMWF model forecast was most similar to the actual situation in precipitation area,and both of them had missing report for the rainstorm prediction in eastern Liaoning.The establishment of the southwest jet between the westward subtropical high and the upper trough guided the warm and wet air to the north,which was conducive to the strengthening of northward typhoon Chaba.The energy front zone appearing at the intersection of cold and warm advection was a good indication for heavy precipitation,but the intensity of the cold and warm advection predicted by the model was weak,and the front zone was more southeast than the actual situation.There was a strong water vapor convergence belt in the southwest to northeast direction in the central and western Liaoning,and ECMWF model was weak in predicting the strong water vapor convergence center in the eastern Liaoning region.

关 键 词：台风“暹芭” 暴雨 诊断分析 预报检验 辽宁地区 

分 类 号：P458.124[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]