基于多因素分析的密云水库流域径流变化归因  

Attribution analysis of runoff changes in the Miyun Reservoir basin based on multi-factor analysis

作　　者：李珠 桑燕芳[1,2,3,6] 杨默远 赵雪花 LI Zhu;SANG Yanfang;YANG Moyuan;ZHAO Xuehua(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Compound and Chained Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China,Beijing,100085,China;Beijing Water Science and Technology Institute,Beijing 100048,China;College of Water Resources Science and Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院山地自然灾害与工程安全重点实验室,北京100101 [3]复合链生自然灾害动力学应急管理部重点实验室,北京100085 [4]北京市水科学技术研究院,北京100048 [5]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,太原030024 [6]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2024年第3期482-490,共9页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFA0606903);国家自然科学基金项目(41971040;52209005)。

摘　　要：为准确揭示密云水库流域径流变化的物理成因,基于降水、径流非平稳特征诊断结果,采用SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)水文模型,基于Budyko理论的弹性系数法和水量平衡法揭示该流域径流变化原因;对比验证各模型归因结果差异,进一步探究归因方法和基准期选择对流域径流变化归因结果的影响。结果表明:基于Budyko理论的水量平衡方法更适用于水利工程众多、跨流域调水活动频繁的密云水库流域径流变化归因计算;利用该方法进行分析,当基准期长度达到16年及以上时,流域径流变化归因分析结果逐渐趋于稳定,而基准期选取过短会高估人类活动对径流的减水效应;此外,基准期选取靠近研究初始时段时,计算得到人类活动的减水效应相对较大。综合考虑上述各因素的影响,认为人类活动是密云水库流域径流变化的主导因素;在变化期Ⅰ,其减水效应在-128.32%~-119.56%波动,在变化期Ⅱ,其对径流的削减作用为-75.58%~-70.70%。研究结果有助于提升对密云水库流域径流复杂演变规律和物理成因的科学认识。For the non-stationary hydrological time series,it is of great importance to explore its formation with attribution analysis to understand the hydrological process and solve the problem of water resources.Under the influence of both climate change and human activity,hydrological process in the Miyun Reservoir basin shows significantly non-stationary characteristics,while there are great differences in the results of attribution in this basin.In order to accurately reveal the causes of runoff changes in the Miyun Reservoir basin,the whole period(1960-2019)was divided into three parts:1960-1979 for the baseline period,1980-1998 for the change periodⅠ,and 1999-2019 for the change periodⅡbased on the detection result of the non-stationary characteristics of precipitationrunoff.The SWAT method,the elastic coefficient method,and the water balance method based on Budyko theory were used for attribution,and then model suitable for attribution in the Miyun Reservoir basin was selected according to the attribution results and basin characteristics.Based on the selected model,length and position of baseline period were changed to further explore the influence of baseline period on the attribution result.It was shown that attributions of elastic coefficient method and water balance method based on Budyko were similar,while the attribution of SWAT method was quite different.In the change periodⅠ,contribution of human activities to runoff changes show as SWAT method<elastic coefficient method<water balance method.And in change periodⅡ,results of the two methods on Budyko both showed that human activity was the main reason for the decrease of runoff,while result of SWAT showed that the impact of climate change on runoff far exceeded the impact of human activities,and became the dominant factor affecting the runoff.Cross-validation of multi-method attributions showed that the water balance method based on Budyko theory was more suitable for the attribution of runoff changes due to the construction of hydraulic projects a

关 键 词：径流 归因分析 基准期 人类活动 密云水库 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]