1962—2021年闽江流域干湿演变特征及其对ENSO事件的响应  

Dry-wet evolution characteristics and response to ENSO events in the Minjiang River basin from 1962 to 2021

作　　者：甘贝贝 刘梅冰[1,2,3] GAN Beibei;LIU Meibing(School of Carbon Neutrality Future Technology,College of Geographyical Sciences,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China;Cultivation Base of State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Mountain Ecology,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China;Fujian Provincial Engineering Research Center for Monitoring and Accessing Terrestrial Disasters,Fuzhou 350117,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理科学学院,碳中和未来技术学院,福州350117 [2]福建师范大学湿润亚热带生态-地理过程教育部重点实验室,福州350117 [3]福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心,福州350117

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2024年第3期545-556,共12页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学联合基金项目“变化环境下多元驱动的闽江流域水循环全要素演变归因研究”(U22A20554)。

摘　　要：基于1962—2021年闽江流域29个气象观测站的日降水量数据,运用标准化降水指数(standard precipitation index,SPI),Mann-Kendal趋势检验(M-K检验)以及Morlet小波分析等多种方法,深入分析不同时间尺度下闽江流域干湿演变特征,同时,结合海温异常指数(sea surface temperature anomaly,SSTA),进一步探究闽江流域干湿对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)事件的响应。结果表明:近60年来,闽江流域整体呈不显著湿润化趋势,夏季在20世纪90年代后显著湿润化,秋季在1995年后有干旱化倾向,冬季比其他季节更容易出现极端干湿事件;从空间上看,流域东南部湿润化趋势明显,具有春季流域中部干旱化,夏季北部以及东南部湿润化,秋季南部干旱化的态势;全流域各级湿润和干旱事件均呈增加趋势,湿润事件多出现在夏季,干旱事件多出现在秋、冬季;闽江流域在20~30 a的范围内存在干—湿—干的周期变化。ENSO对闽江流域干湿有显著影响,且具有一定的滞后性,暖、冷事件的影响分别在滞后1~4个月和3~5个月最显著。The global average temperature has risen by 1.09℃over the past century.The increase in temperature leads to an increase in evapotranspiration and atmospheric water vapor content,which causes the rate of the water cycle to accelerate,changing the global pattern of the spatial and temporal distribution of water and heat,thus causing the frequent occurrence of droughts,floods,and other extreme events.The Minjiang River basin is an important water conservation area in the southeast of China,with an average annual precipitation between 1400 mm and 2000 mm.But the inter-annual unevenness,inter-seasonal variability,and impulsive intra-seasonal distribution of precipitation,as well as the complexity of geographic distribution,make the basin regional,seasonal dry and wet problems occur frequently.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the characteristics of regional dry and wet evolution for economic and social development and ecological environment construction.Based on the daily precipitation data of 29 meteorological stations in the Minjiang River basin from 1962 to 2021,the standardized precipitation index(SPI),combined with the Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis,were used to analyze the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes of dryness and wetness of the Minjiang River basin under different time scales,and combined with the sea surface temperature anomaly index(SSTA),to investigate the effects of ENSO events on the evolution of dryness and wetness in the Minjiang River.The results showed that the Minjiang River basin showed a non-significant wetting trend at different spatial and temporal scales,with a weak wetting trend in spring,and the basin showed a wet-dry-wet-dry distribution from east to west.The summer SPI changed abruptly after the 1990s,showing a significant wetting trend,with a significant wetting trend in the southeastern part of the basin.In autumn,the drought trend began to intensify after 1995,with a tendency toward aridification in the southern part of the basin.Winter is

关 键 词：标准化降水指数 干湿事件 干湿演变特征 ENSO事件 闽江流域 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]