欧美亚典型发达国家洪水标准及应对气候变化策略  

Flood standards and coping strategies for climate change in typical developed countries in Europe,America,and Asia

作　　者：胡义明[1] 温骐宇 王静[2] 曹子恒 彭安帮[3] 梁忠民[1] HU Yiming;WEN Qiyu;WANG Jing;CAO Ziheng;PENG Anbang;LIANG Zhongmin(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [3]南京水利科学研究院,南京210029

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2024年第3期605-617,共13页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42371045;52379007)。

摘　　要：针对洪水标准选用及应对气候变化适应性政策制定问题,系统调研欧美亚典型发达国家在该领域的研究及应用成果,从工程设计洪水标准和流域洪水管理标准等角度综述美国、荷兰、英国和日本洪水标准的制定政策,从气候变化对设计暴雨/洪水的影响角度分析总结英国和日本在应对气候变化上的适应性对策。建议在洪水标准及气候适应对策研究中抛弃单纯依据大坝尺寸确定洪水标准的方式,基于动态发展及整体-局部互馈关联视角,兼顾气候变化对暴雨洪水的影响,从洪水潜在危害及风险角度出发,制定相应的政策规范。本综述可为我国新时期洪水标准选用规则及适应气候变化策略的制定提供参考。Designing flood standard is crucial in the planning,design,and operational management of water resources and hydropower engineering.The determination of the standard is influenced by various factors such as the socio-economic conditions,the population size,and the scale and efficiency of engineering construction.With the intensification of climate change and the advancement of new theories and technologies,the international community began to explore new flood standard selection criteria and climate change adaptation policies to meet the requirements of flood management.Some typical developed countries such as the United States,the Netherlands,the United Kingdom,and Japan had taken a series of measures to address the challenges posed by climate change on the design of extreme rainfall and floods.They had also formulated corresponding policies and standards,which could provide valuable experiences for other countries.The research findings and current application status of flood standard selection and climate change adaptation policies in several typical developed countries,including the United States,the Netherlands,the United Kingdom and Japan,were systematically reviewed.The policy formulation process and standard selection methods of these countries were comprehensively analyzed from two perspectives:engineering design flood standards and basin flood management standards.Moreover,the specific strategies and measures adopted by the United Kingdom and Japan in response to climate change impacts on extreme rainfall and floods were summarized.The main results were as follows:Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA)in the United States had proposed multiple methods for determining flood standards,including prescriptive approach,incremental consequence analysis,risk-informed decision making and site-specific PMP studies.It emphasizes the importance of considering flood potential hazards and risks rather than simply relying on dam size.The Netherlands,through a national flood risk analysis,had transitioned its flood

关 键 词：洪水标准 气候变化 适应性对策 美国 荷兰 英国 日本 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]