横断山区水电工程扰动灾害及风险分析  

RISK OF DISTURBANCE DISASTERS OF HYDROPOWER PROJECT IN HENGDUAN MOUNTAINS

作　　者：祁生文[1,2,3] 李永超 刘春玲 郭忻怡 唐凤娇 鲁晓 李丽慧 杨国香[5] 沙鹏 周洪福 郭松峰[1,2] 郑博文[1,2] QI Shengwen;LI Yongchao;LIU Chunling;GUO Xinyi;TANG Fengjiao;LU Xiao;LI Lihui;YANG Guoxiang;SHA Peng;ZHOU Hongfu;GUO Songfeng;ZHENG Bowen(Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Innovation Academy for Earth Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;College of Earth and Planetary Science,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing Center for Land and Resources,China Geological Survey,Beijing 100083,China;Shaoxing University,Beijing 100083,China;China University of Geosciences,Shaoxing 312000,China;Chengdu Center of China Geological Survey,Chengdu 610081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,中国科学院页岩气与地质工程重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国科学院地球科学研究院,北京100029 [3]中国科学院大学,地球与行星科学学院,北京100049 [4]中国自然资源航空物探遥感中心,北京100083 [5]中国地质大学(北京),北京100083 [6]绍兴文理学院,绍兴312000 [7]中国地质调查局成都地质调查中心,成都610081

出　　处：《工程地质学报》2024年第3期729-759,共31页Journal of Engineering Geology

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(资助号:2019QZKK0904).

摘　　要：水电作为全球公认的清洁能源,但水电站的大量建设会人为的改变流域水文条件,对流域内地质环境的影响也仍未可知,因此亟需查明水电工程与地质环境之间的互馈作用。以我国水电工程密集区——横断山区作为研究区,首次对横断山区内的水电工程及扰动灾害进行系统的研究,通过遥感解译及现场验证,获得金沙江、澜沧江、岷江、雅砻江、大渡河以及怒江6个流域内的水电工程共计162座,水电工程扰动灾害共计2841处,并对灾害空间分布规律进行分析。结合前人研究和团队最新成果,对水库水位抬升及循环涨落作用下的库水作用,水库滑坡特征开展分析,揭示了水库滑坡失稳原因。在此基础上提出了水电工程扰动灾害风险分析方法,对6个流域分别开展风险评价,获得了各个流域在不同规模灾害下的经济及人口风险分区图。本研究可为横断山区及其周边区域未来水电开发提供指导,这对保障区域工程的安全建设具有重要意义。As a globally recognized clean energy source,the construction of hydropower projects has gradually been favored by society in recent years.However,the large-scale construction of hydropower stations will artificially change the hydrological conditions of the watershed,and the impact on the geological environment is still unknown.Therefore,there is an urgent need to identify the mutual feedback between hydropower projects and the geological environment.Taking the Hengduan Mountains,a densely populated area of hydropower projects in China,as the research area,the first systematic study of hydropower projects and the disturbance disasters in the Hengduan Mountains was conducted.Through remote sensing interpretation and on-site verification,a total of 162 hydropower projects and a total of 2,841 disturbance disasters were obtained in the six river watersheds of Jinsha River,Lancang River,Min River,Yalong River,Dadu River,and Nu River.The spatial distribution patterns of disasters were analyzed.Combining previous research and the latest results of the team,the analysis of reservoir landslide characteristics under the effect of reservoir water level rise and cyclic fluctuations was conducted,revealing the causes of reservoir landslide instability.On this basis,a hydropower project disturbance disaster risk assessment method was proposed,and risk assessments were carried out for the six river watersheds.Economic and population risk zoning maps of each river basin under different scales of disasters were obtained.This study can provide guidance for future hydropower development in the Hengduan Mountains and its surrounding areas,which is of great significance to ensuring the safe construction of regional projects.

关 键 词：横断山区 水电工程 工程扰动灾害 灾害机理 风险分析 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]