数据报告:2023—2024年中国茧丝绸行业经济运行分析及展望  

Data report:Economic operation analysis of China’s cocoon and silk industry in 2023 and prospect for 2024

作　　者：刘文全 柳恩见 LIU Wenquan;LIU Enjian(China Silk Association,Beijing 100034,China)

机构地区：[1]中国丝绸协会,北京100034

出　　处：《丝绸》2024年第7期149-155,共7页Journal of Silk

摘　　要：文章公布并分析了2023年中国茧丝绸行业的农业环节、工业环节、贸易环节的经济运行情况,并对2024年茧丝绸行业发展趋势进行展望。2023年,虽然全国桑园面积同比减少,但全国蚕种产量同比增长。受丝价上涨、蚕茧生产成本增加等影响,全国桑蚕茧收购均价也同比增长。丝绸行业规模以上企业主要产品产量同比有所下滑,但540家规模以上丝绸企业营业收入同比增长,2023年初以来,丝绸行业经济运行呈现持续恢复增长态势,企业营业收入和利润增速实现双增长。2023年,丝绸内销市场明显回暖,但真丝绸商品出口整体下滑。预计2024年国内蚕桑生产总体形势有望维持基本稳定格局,蚕茧产量能否实现较大幅度增长仍然存在较大变数,国内丝绸工业生产有望逐步走出低谷,生丝等主要产品产量降幅收窄,行业经济效益增速逐步趋缓,国内丝绸市场大概率延续温和回暖势头,但企业线上线下销售的压力和挑战仍然较大。考虑到目前国际消费市场形势仍不明朗,2024年国内丝绸商品出口能否实现止跌企稳,迎来阶段性拐点仍有待观察。This paper publishes and analyzes the economic operation of agricultural link,industrial link and trade link in China’s cocoon and silk industry in 2023,and prospects the development trend of the cocoon and silk industry in 2024.In 2023,although the area of mulberry fields nationwide decreased year on year,the output of silkworm eggs nationwide increased year on year.Affected by the rising price of silk and the increasing cost of cocoon production,the average purchase price of mulberry cocoons nationwide also increased year on year.The output of main products of enterprises above designated size in the silk industry declined on a year-on-year basis,while the operating income of 540 silk enterprises above designated size increased on a year-on-year basis.Since the beginning of 2023,the economic operation of the silk industry has continued to resume growth,and the business income and profit growth rate of enterprises have achieved double growth.In 2023,the domestic silk market picked up significantly,but the export of real silk commodities declined overall.It is estimated that the overall situation of domestic sericulture production is expected to maintain a basically stable pattern in 2024,and whether the output of silkworm cocoons can achieve a substantial increase is still highly uncertain.The domestic silk industry production is expected to gradually bottom out,the decline in the output of major products such as raw silk will be narrowed,the growth rate of industrial economic benefits will gradually slow down,and the domestic silk market will probably continue to recover moderately,but the pressure and challenges of online and offline sales of enterprises are still great.Considering that the current international consumer market situation is still unclear,whether domestic silk commodity exports can stabilize in 2024 and usher in a phased turning point remains to be seen.

关 键 词：茧丝绸行业 蚕桑生产 经济运行 丝绸贸易 市场分析 

分 类 号：F426.81[经济管理—产业经济]