稳增长视角下积极财政政策总量扩张和结构优化的动态选择  

Dynamic Choice for the Aggregate Expansion and Structural Optimization of Proactive Fiscal Policy from the Perspective of Growth Stabilization

作　　者：金成晓[1] 姜旭 Jin Chengxiao;Jiang Xu

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]常州大学吴敬琏经济学院,江苏常州213159

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（国民经济管理）》2023年第4期62-74,共13页NATIONAL ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“中国金融周期的波动特征、形成机理及其与经济周期的动态关联机制研究”(71873056);教育部人文社会科学规划项目“基于状态识别与工具协调的货币政策与宏观审慎政策双支柱调控框架研究”(19YJA790036)。

摘　　要：积极财政政策兼具稳增长与调结构功能,不仅是经济高质量发展的必要措施,而且是深化财税体制改革的重要组成部分。利用DSCE模型的历史冲击分解反事实分析与DSCE-VAR脉冲响应,研究了积极财政政策工具的效果与特征。研究表明:积极财政政策在政府与私人部门杠杆间存在置换效应,通过总量扩张与结构调整间的协调能够有效提升财政政策空间;积极财政政策能够对货币政策的有效性提供支撑作用;财政转移支付通过需求端的短期促增长作用更加明显,而生产性财政政策则通过长期供给侧影响更有利于就业。因此,建议从三个方面优化和完善积极财政政策:一是在更加全面和长远的维度上考虑积极财政政策的可持续问题;二是进一步探索财政与货币政策的高水平协调机制,使两者充分形成合力;三是对于不同的财政政策工具,应考虑其时间与区域特征,采用不同的发展策略以发挥各自优势。The proactive fiscal policy has the functions of both stabilizing growth and adjusting structure.It is not only a necessary measure for high-quality economic development,but also an important part of deepening the reform of the fiscal and taxation system.By making use of the counterfactual analysis of historical shock decomposition based on DSCE model and DSGE-VAR impulse response,this paper studies the effects and characteristics of the proactive fiscal policy tools.The findings show that the proactive fiscal policy has a replacement effect between government and private sector leverage,and the coordination between total volume expansion and structural adjustment can effectively increase the fiscal policy space.The proactive fiscal policy can support the effectiveness of monetary policy.The role of the fiscal transfer payment in promoting growth is more obvious through the short-term demand side,while the productive fiscal payment is more conducive to employment through the long-term supply side.Therefore,this paper suggests to optimize and perfect the proactive fiscal policy from the three aspects:the first is to consider the sustainability of the proactive fiscal policy from a more comprehensive and long-term perspective;the second is to further explore a high-level coordination mechanism between finance and monetary policy,so that a joint force can be formed by them;the third is to consider the time and regional characteristics of the different fiscal policy instruments,adopting different development strategies to give full play to their own advantages.

关 键 词：积极财政政策 货币政策 财政转移支付 稳增长 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学]