基于灰色预测模型的大连市快递物流业发展研究  

On the Development of Dalian Express Logistics Industry Based on Grey Prediction Model

作　　者：吴俊妮 Wu Junni(Dalian University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116100,China)

机构地区：[1]大连财经学院管理学院,辽宁大连116100

出　　处：《黑河学院学报》2024年第7期58-60,79,共4页Journal of Heihe University

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅基本科研项目“辽宁省应急物流管理体系建设研究”(JYTMS20231031)。

摘　　要：快递物流业是我国服务行业的中坚力量,不仅能够促进千万人就业,也昭示了国民经济的发展走向。笔者结合大连市快递物流业发展的实际情况,以2016—2020年邮政业务量相关数据为预测对象,在消费型快递需求的基础上,通过分析函件、包裹、报纸、杂志等快递业务,构建灰色预测模型,并对大连市未来5年的快递业务量进行预测,结果表明:所建立的模型是可行、有效的,在此基础上,进一步发展则应使物流业多样模式化,建立稳定的人才队伍,并运用新的科技手段提高效率。The express logistics industry is the backbone of our country’s service industry.It can not only promote the employment of millions of people,but also indicate the development trend of the national economy.Combining with the actual situation of the development of express logistics industry in Dalian,the article takes 2016—2020 postal business volume-related data as the forecast object.On the basis of consumer express demand,it also considers express services such as letters,parcels,newspapers,magazines,etc.The grey forecast model,through data analysis,forecasts the express business volume of Dalian in the next fi ve years.The forecast results show that the established model is feasible and eff ective.Therefore,further development should make the logistics industry diversifi ed models,establish a stable talent team,and use new scientifi c and technological means to improve effi ciency.

关 键 词：灰色预测 大连市 快递业务量 物流行业 

分 类 号：F552[经济管理—产业经济]