调结构和稳经济双重背景下中国双支柱政策的配合研究——兼论房地产市场调控  

On the Coordination of China's Dual Pillar Policy under the Double Backgrounds of Structural Adjustment and Economic Stabilization:Concurrently Studying the Regulation of Real Estate Market

作　　者：高洁超 范从来 杨源源 贾鹏飞 Gao Jiechao;Fan Conglai;Yang Yuanyuan;Jia Pengfei

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院,上海201620 [2]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心 [3]南京审计大学金融学院,南京211815 [4]南京大学商学院,南京210093

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（国民经济管理）》2023年第12期32-46,共15页NATIONAL ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划青年课题“信贷结构优化与中国三支柱调控框架研究-基于制度授权和一般均衡视角”(2022EJL001);国家自然科学基金青年项目“影子银行扩张背景下中国货币政策与宏观审慎政策的协调研究”(71803127);国家社会科学基金后期项目“金融风险演化与‘稳金融'宏观调控研究”(20FJYB042);国家自然科学基金项目“宏观审慎政策的理论依据与最优政策设计”(72104101)的资助。

摘　　要：在转型风险和停滞风险交织的国内国际大环境下,调结构和稳经济成为中国经济工作中尤为关键的着力点。本文建立包含信贷结构特征的DSCE模型,分别通过长期稳态与短期波动两个视角,探究双支柱政策在调结构和稳经济方面的配合问题。研究发现,第一,正向住房偏好冲击引起住房贷款内生性挤出生产性企业贷款,可以刻画以房地产价格为代表的资产价格高企和实体制造业持续低迷并存的状态。货币政策收紧可以降低房贷在总贷款中的比重,但导致产出衰退,不适宜单独作为调结构的工具。第二,不同部门间的风险溢价与不良率长期错配是引起信贷结构失衡的重要原因。在当前推动生产性企业贷款利率下调的背景下,应适度调低房贷利率以防止错配扩大。第三,抑制经济波动的最优双支柱模式与调控目标有关,纳入金融风险变量还是资产价格变量会影响政策组合的选择。Given the interwoven risks of transition and stagnation in the domestic environment and international environment,structural adjustment and economic stability have become particularly critical focuses in China's economic work.This paper establishes a DSGE model including credit structure characteristic,and explores the coordination of dual pillar policies in structural adjustment and economic stability from the perspectives of long-term steady state and short-term fluctuations.Firstly,the results show the positive housing preference causes the mortgage endogenously crowding out productive enterprise loans,which can depict the coexistence of high asset prices represented by real estate price and the persistent downturn of real manufacturing.Tighter monetary policy can reduce the share of mortgage loans in total loans,but leading a decline in output,which is not suitable as a structural adjustment tool alone.Secondly,the long-term mismatch between risk premium and non-performing loan ratio is an important source causing imbalances in the credit structure.Under the background of reducing the loan interest rate of productive enterprises,the mortgage interest rate should be moderately lowered to mitigate the mismatch.Thirdly,in terms of smoothing volatility,the optimal dual pillar regulation mode is related to specific macroeconomic regulation targets.The inclusion of financial risk variable or asset price variable will affect the choice of policy mix.

关 键 词：信贷结构 经济波动 货币政策 宏观审慎政策 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济]