中国生猪生产成本变动及动因分解——基于中美比较  

Changes in hog production costs and decomposition of the drivers in China:a study based on comparisons between China and the United States

作　　者：刘晨阳 辛翔飞[1] 王祖力[1] 王济民[1] LIU Chenyang;XIN Xiangfei;WANG Zui;WANG Jimin(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2024年第4期485-494,共10页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(72033009);国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJY261);农业农村部和财政部项目(CARS-35)。

摘　　要：基于2000—2021年中美生猪生产成本数据,采用成本要素分解方法,剖析中国生猪生产成本增长以及中美生猪生产成本差距变动的影响因素。结果表明:2000—2021年,中国生猪生产成本逐年上升,由5.60元/千克增长至17.62元/千克,美国生猪生产成本维持在8~10元/千克。中美生猪生产成本优势自2007年起发生翻转,且差距逐步拉大;中国生猪生产成本增长的主要驱动因素在于饲料成本、仔猪成本和人工成本的增长,美国生猪生产成本下降的主要原因在于仔猪成本和人工成本的明显下降;中国生猪生产成本增长是中美两国生猪生产成本差距拉大的最主要因素,2000—2021年中国生猪生产成本增长对中美生猪生产成本差距拉大的贡献份额高达79.63%。据此,建议中国进一步优化生猪生产效率,提升能繁母猪繁育效率,提高人工投入产出效率。Based on the data of hog production cost of China and the United States from 2000 to 2021,the factors influencing the growth of China’s hog production cost and the change of the gap between China and the United States in hog production cost were analysed by using the cost factor decomposition method.The results show that from 2000 to 2021,the cost of hog production in China increased year by year,from 5.60 yuan/kg to 17.62 yuan/kg,and the cost of hog production in the United States was maintained at about 8 to 10 yuan/kg.Hog production cost advantage of China and the United States has been flipped since 2007,and the gap has gradually widened.China’s hog production cost growth is the main driver behind the growth of feed costs,piglet costs and labour costs.Hog production cost decline in the United States is mainly due to the significant decline in the cost of piglets and labour.The growth of hog production cost in China is the most important factor for the widening gap in hog production cost between the United States and China.The growth of hog production cost in China contributes up to 79.63%to the widening of the hog production cost gap between China and the U.S.from 2000 to 2021.Accordingly,it is recommended that China further optimise the efficiency of hog production,improve the breeding efficiency of breeding sows,and increase the efficiency of labour inputs and outputs.

关 键 词：生猪生产 成本增长 成本差距 因素分解 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]