珠江流域浔江防洪保护区洪灾风险评估  

Flood Risk Assessment of Xunjiang Flood Control Protection Area in the Pearl River Basin

作　　者：冯刚 黄强[1] 方伟[1] 李沛[1] 郑旭东 杨程[1] FENG Gang;HUANG Qiang;FANG Wei;LI Pei;ZHENG Xu-dong;YANG Cheng(State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,西安710048

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2024年第7期79-86,93,共9页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2023YFC3006502);国家自然科学基金项目(52009100,51879213);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2021M692602)。

摘　　要：洪水灾害具有发生频率高、破坏性强的特点,风险评估可揭示高风险热点区及其驱动因素,有助于科学、高效构建防洪减灾体系。以珠江流域浔江防洪保护区为研究对象,构建HEC-RAS水动力模型,提取最大流速、水深评估洪水危险性;利用层次分析法和熵权法,考虑人口密度、国内生产总值(GDP)和土地利用等要素,评估承灾体的暴露度和脆弱性;最后计算洪灾风险,分析洪灾风险时空动态变化。结果表明:水动力模型的平均命中率达0.80以上,误报率低于0.28;在浔江防洪保护区内,中高风险区占5.20%以上;1997—2017年间,不同等级的洪水风险均呈加剧趋势,值得警惕的是中高风险区近46.69%区域风险上升趋势显著。研究成果可为科学高效的洪灾风险管理提供决策支持。Flood disasters are highly frequent and strongly destructive.Risk assessment reveals high-risk hotspots and their driving factors,aiding in the establishment of a scientific and efficient flood control and disaster reduction system.This study focuses on the Xunjiang Flood Control Protection Area in the Pearl River Basin.Initially,the HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model was constructed to extract maximum flow velocity and water depth for flood risk evaluation.Subsequently,the exposure and vulnerability of affected populations were assessed by using the AHP and entropy weight methods in consideration of factors including population density,GDP,and land use.Finally,flood risk was quantified,and spatial-temporal changes were analyzed.Results indicate that the hydrodynamic model achieves an average accuracy exceeding 0.80,with a false positive rate below 0.28.Medium to high-risk zones in the Xunjiang Flood Control Protection Area exceed 5.20%.From 1997 to 2017,risks of various levels displayed an increasing trend.Notably,nearly 46.69%of medium to high-risk zones exhibited significant upward trends.These findings support informed decision-making in flood risk management practices.

关 键 词：洪灾风险评估 洪水淹没 水动力模拟 防洪保护区 演变规律 珠江流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]