“阶跃型”滑坡位移监测动态预警系统  

Dynamic Warning System of Displacement Monitoring for Step-like Landslide

作　　者：贲琰棋 易武[1,2] 魏兆亨 周迎 刘伟 邓欣雨 BEN Yan-qi;YI Wu;WEI Zhao-heng;ZHOU Ying;LIU Wei;DENG Xin-yu(National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station on Hubei Yangtze River Three Gorges Landslide,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Fifth Geological Brigade of Hubei Geological Bureau,Ezhou 436000,China;Shiyan Bureau of Natural Resources and Planning,Shiyan 442000,China;College of Science and Technology,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学湖北长江三峡滑坡国家野外科学观测研究站,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学土木与建筑学院,湖北宜昌443002 [3]湖北省地质局第五地质大队,湖北鄂州436000 [4]十堰市自然资源和规划局,湖北十堰442000 [5]三峡大学科技学院,湖北宜昌442002

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2024年第7期148-157,共10页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42007237);十堰市自然资源和规划局项目(HBDX21-008)。

摘　　要：“阶跃型”演化规律是滑坡在等速变形阶段受外界因素影响表现出的一种波动特性,具有变形周期长、机制复杂、临灾预警难度大的特点。基于“阶跃型”滑坡变形-时间曲线的特征和规律,通过引入“一个降雨过程”定义滑坡监测序列的多期降雨区间,将预警过程划分为前期+当期降雨和当期降雨两种模式,以诱因-时间-空间作为滑坡预警的重要指标,建立了滑坡综合预警判据模型,据此提出设计麻池村1号滑坡综合动态分级预警系统的方法。并结合麻池村1号滑坡的地质条件、监测数据等信息,深入分析了滑坡的变形演化规律及预警阈值。结果表明:①滑坡变形破坏模式为牵引式,属于典型的降雨诱发的“阶跃型”堆积层滑坡;②前期降雨有效持时为10 d,前期+当期降雨模式下的降雨阈值分别为24、32 mm,当期降雨模式下滑坡的的降雨阈值为37 mm,滑坡的位移速率阈值为12 mm;③以降雨量、位移速率到达阈值时为Ⅲ级黄色预警中心面(线),构建滑坡的综合动态分级预警系统,将滑坡预警从传统的“阈值预警”升级为“过程预警”,使得预警更具针对性。The step-like evolution of landslide represents the fluctuating behavior of landslides influenced by external factors during the isokinetic deformation phase.Step-like landslide is characterized by extended deformation cycles,intricate mechanisms,and challenges in disaster early-warning.By analyzing the deformation-time curves of step-like landslide,we introduced the concept of“one rainfall process”and defined multiple rainfall intervals in the monitoring sequence.Subsequently,we categorized the warning process into two modes:the previous rainfall-plus the current rainfall pattern,and the current rainfall pattern.With cause-time-space as significant indices for landslide warning,we established a holistic landslide early-warning criterion model,and designed a dynamic early-warning system for Landslide No.1 at Machi Village as a case study.By correlating geological conditions and monitoring data with a profound analysis of deformation evolution patterns and warning thresholds,we observed that:(1)The landslide deformation mode is predominantly traction-related,demonstrating a typical rainfall-triggered step-like behavior.(2)The effective early rainfall duration is 10 days.The rainfall thresholds are 24 mm and 32 mm respectively under the previous plus current rainfall mode,and 37 mm under the current rainfall mode.(3)With the threshold values for rainfall and displacement rate as the Grade III yellow early-warning central boundary,we established a comprehensive dynamic grading early-warning system that transitions from traditional threshold warning to process warning.This shift enhances the precision and efficiency of landslide prediction and management.

关 键 词：“阶跃型”滑坡 滑坡监测 降雨过程 阈值预警 预警系统 

分 类 号：TV697.23[水利工程—水利水电工程] P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]