高水平开放下粮食市场政策干预对国内外市场整合的影响  

The Impacts of Policy Interventions in Grain Market on Domestic and International Market Integration under the High-level Opening Up

作　　者：王文亭 林大燕[1] 许王芳 WANG Wenting;LIN Dayan;XU Wangfang

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学经济管理学院,南京210094 [2]浙江大学中国农村发展研究院,杭州310058

出　　处：《世界农业》2024年第7期58-70,共13页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“中国粮食供需格局演变与开放条件下的粮食安全政策研究”(71934005);江苏省社会科学基金项目“数字技术赋能江苏农业生产高质量发展的实现路径研究”(23EYC004);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2023SJYB0010);南京理工大学自主科研专项(1225011071265)。

摘　　要：国内外粮食市场整合是新时期高水平开放下国家粮食安全战略保障体系的重要内容。本文利用2002年1月至2021年12月的周度时间序列数据,基于非线性门阈模型识别粮食的国际贸易成本,并构建结构变动下的时变阈值模型,从价格调整和贸易成本两个方面,实证分析加入世界贸易组织以来中国粮食市场政策干预对国内外市场整合的影响。结果表明,国内外粮价存在显著的阈值效应;最低收购价政策和临时收储政策均显著降低了国内粮价向均衡调整的速度,提高了国内外粮食市场的贸易成本,导致国内外粮食市场趋于分割,在统筹利用国内国际两个市场与两种资源的过程中造成了效率损失;而玉米和大豆收储政策改革通过“价补分离”、精准补贴的调整方式,完善市场价格形成机制,显著提高了国内外市场整合程度,有利于在全球范围内优化资源配置。深入推进市场化改革,推动国内农业支持政策向国内外接轨转型,是高水平开放下保障国家粮食安全的应有之义。Domestic and international grain market integration is an integral part of China’s food security strategy system in the new round of high-level opening-up.Using weekly time series data from January 2002 to December 2021,this paper identifies grain trade costs based on a threshold autoregressive model.Then,the time-varying threshold model under structural change is constructed to analyze the impacts of policy in grain market intervention on China’s domestic and world market integration in respects of both trade costs and price adjustment.The results significantly confirm the threshold effects between China’s grain prices and world grain prices.Minimum procurement price policy and temporary procurement for storage policy increase the trade costs,prolong the process of price adjustment and lead to market segmentation,which results in economic inefficiency in the process of fully utilizing two markets and two types of resources.The reforms of temporary purchase and“storage policies”for corn and soybean remarkably enhance market integration by improving market price formation mechanism,which facilitates the optimization of resource allocation on a global scale.Adhering to the path of market-oriented reform and promoting the transition of agricultural domestic support policy design from decoupling to re-coupling with the international rules will help ensure China’s food security under the high-level of opening up.

关 键 词：粮食市场政策干预 国内外市场整合 贸易成本 时变阈值模型 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] F125