如何以多价值链协同实现制造企业生产预测优化?——以电力制造企业为例  

How to Achieve Production Forecast Optimization of Manufacturing Enterprises Based on Multi-value Chain Collaboration?-An Example of an Electric Power Manufacturingg Company

作　　者：牛东晓[1] 李明钰 余敏 凌周玥 张洋 NIU Dongxiao;LI Mingyu;YU Min;LING Zhouyue;ZHANG Yang(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《工程管理科技前沿》2024年第3期18-27,共10页Frontiers of Science and Technology of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2020YFB1707801)。

摘　　要：制造业是一个国家能源和经济发展的基础化产业。为了能够有效保障企业利益,提高企业竞争力,需要对制造企业生产进行准确预测。本文从多价值链协同的角度分析生产、营销、供应及服务等过程,利用随机森林(RF)—天牛须优化(BAS)—卷积神经网络(CNN)方法构建三阶段生产预测模型,并以北京某电力制造企业为例进行实证分析,验证预测优化效果。研究结果表明,利用该模型进行生产预测优化,相比于其他预测方法来说,能够有效提高预测精度。同时多价值链协同能够更好地体现内外部价值链之间的相互关系,协同下的生产预测优化对制造企业来说具有更加重要的意义。At present,with the adjustment and upgrading of the global industrial chain,it is of great significance to fight the battle of industrial chain modernization in the context of intelligent manufacturing.And the manufacturing industry,as an industry with the production link as the source of the core value chain,how to improve its own production and operation level in the context of intelligent manufacturing and industrial chain upgrading is a key issue that an enterprise is currently facing.Therefore,this paper proposes how to realize the production forecasting optimization of manufacturing enterprises with multi-value chain collaboration.The purpose is to use intelligent computing methods to accurately forecast the production of manufacturing enterprises and provide a reliable basis for the production and operation of manufacturing enterprises.This research can not only improve the effectiveness of future production management.It can also provide an effective reference for enterprises to formulate production decision-making programs and reduce business risks,which is of great significance.This paper investigates the optimization of production forecasting in manufacturing enterprises from the perspective of multi-value chain collaboration.It constructs a three-stage multi-value chain collaborative production forecasting optimization model of Random Forest(RF)-Beetle Antennae Search(BAS)-Convolutional Neural Network(CNN).The data of this paper comes from an electric power manufacturing enterprise in Beijing.First,this paper determines the value chain perspective analysis object of production forecasting in manufacturing enterprises based on the multi-value chain collaborative relationship.Second,the RF is used to screen and reconstruct the influencing factors of the external value chain of the manufacturing enterprise to obtain the comprehensive influencing factors of the external value chain.Third,BAS-CNN is used to construct a production forecasting optimization model for multi-value chain collaboration.The output

关 键 词：多价值链协同 制造企业 生产预测 内外部价值链 

分 类 号：F425[经济管理—产业经济]