二氧化碳边际减排成本变化的驱动因素分解与脱钩分析——来自中国工业行业的实证研究  

Decomposition and Decoupling of Driving Factors on Marginal Abatement Cost Change of Carbon Emissions:An Empirical Study Based on China's Industrial Sector

作　　者：陈鸣 王科[1,2,3] CHEN Ming;WANG Ke(School of Management,Bejing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Bejing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理学院,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081 [3]能源经济与环境管理北京市重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《工程管理科技前沿》2024年第3期46-54,共9页Frontiers of Science and Technology of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(23ZDA107);国家自然科学基金资助项目(72271026,71871022,72293601)。

摘　　要：在工业生产过程中减少碳排放不可避免地会带来一系列的经济成本。本文通过建立随机前沿函数对中国主要工业行业的边际减排成本进行测算,并采用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)方法、Tapio脱钩模型对边际减排成本变化进行驱动因素分解与脱钩分析,探讨边际减排成本的变化与减排措施的选择存在的相关性,进而指明中国以更低的经济成本实现“双碳”目标的政策方向。研究发现,通过终端控制效应来减少碳排放可以更有效地降低减排成本;当前可以采取以天然气代替煤炭和石油的短期策略进行减排,但长期来看,依然有必要加强新技术的研发与推广,以真正的“零碳”能源代替煤炭、石油、天然气的消费。Inevitably,climate change poses a series of economic and societal risks,seriously threatening the stability of China's socio-economic system.To mitigate and avoid the risks of climate change,China has set strategic goals for"carbon peaking by 2030"and“carbon neutrality by 2060”.However,reducing carbon emissions will inevitably come with certain economic costs,and the economic cost of emission reduction varies significantly under different economic conditions and environmental conditions.The choice of emission reduction measures has a decisive impact on the differences in emission reduction costs.In order to make appropriate choices for emission reduction measures,it is effective to identify the determining factors of the change in marginal abatement costs through the decomposing and decoupling analysis.In this paper,we focus on 19 key industrial sectors in China's secondary industry.The marginal abatement costs of 19 major industrial sectors in 30 provinces in China-excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan-are subjected to a decomposition of driving factors and a decoupling analysis.First,the study employs the Stochastic Frontier Analysis(SFA)method to estimate the marginal abatement costs for each industry.Building on this,the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method is used to attribute the changes in marginal abatement costs to energy saving effects and end-of-pipe controlling effects.Second,the Tapio model is applied to discuss whether the reduction in carbon-intensive energy consumption,including coal,oil,and natural gas,leads to changes in marginal abatement costs.The research findings are as follows:(1)Most sectors exhibit significant fluctuations in marginal abatement costs,but overall,there is an upward trend,especially in sectors such as production and supply of electric power,steam and hot water,textile industry,metal products,food production,and smelting and pressing of nonferrous metals.(2)After 2010,with the increasing promotion of energy-saving and emission reduction efforts,a further reduc

关 键 词：边际减排成本 随机前沿分析 LMDI Tapio脱钩模型 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]