中国化肥面源污染的时空特征及其影响因素——基于1997—2020年的省级面板数据  

Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizers in China: based on provincial panel data from 1997 to 2020

作　　者：冀玄玄 姜军松[1] JI Xuanxuan;JIANG Junsong(Business School,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105

出　　处：《浙江农业学报》2024年第5期1185-1198,共14页Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(21AJL004)。

摘　　要：化肥面源污染问题关系着农业绿色发展和乡村生态振兴。利用1997—2020年省级面板数据,在测算化肥面源污染排放强度的基础上,运用Kernel密度估计、马尔科夫链分析、泰尔指数以及双向固定效应模型等方法,探究中国化肥面源污染的时空特征与影响因素。结果表明,中国化肥面源污染的排放强度呈先升后降的变化态势,以2015年为分界点,污染排放强度向低水平转移的趋势逐渐显现,但仍具有维持原有类型的稳定性,难以实现跨越式降低。样本期内化肥面源污染排放强度表现出“东高西低、南高北低”的空间分布格局,且区域内差异是总体差异的主要来源。财政支农水平、农业经济增长水平及农村人力资本等9项因素影响化肥面源污染排放强度。因此,既应制定差异化的污染治理措施,又要加强省份间的污染治理合作,还需拓展化肥减量增效路径,大力推进农业发展全面绿色转型。The problem of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizers is related to the green development of agriculture and the revitalization of rural ecology.Based on the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2020,the emission intensity of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizers was measured.The Kernel density estimation,Markov chain analysis,Theil index,two-way fixed effect model and other methods were adopted to explore the spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizers in China.The results showed that,the emission intensity of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizers in China was increasing at first and then decreasing.Taking the year of 2015 as the dividing point,the trend of emission intensity of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizer shifting to a low level gradually appeared,but it was still stable to maintain the original level,and it was difficult to achieve leapfrog reduction.During the sample period,the emission intensity of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizers showed a spatial distribution pattern of“high in the east and low in the west,high in the south and low in the north”.The intra-regional difference was the main source of the overall difference.Nine factors,such as the level of financial support for agriculture,the level of agricultural economic growth and rural human capital,affected the emission intensity of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizers.Therefore,it is necessary not only to formulate differentiated pollution control measures,but also to strengthen cooperation in pollution control among provincial administrative regions.Meanwhile,it is important to expand the path of fertilizer reduction and efficiency increase in order to promote greener agricultural development in all respects.

关 键 词：化肥面源污染 排放强度 时空特征 影响因素 污染治理 

分 类 号：F329.9[经济管理—产业经济]