经济不确定性、个体创业与创业机会不均等  

Economic Uncertainty,Entrepreneurship and Entrepreneurial Opportunity Inequality

作　　者：杨紫 张勋 黄卓[3,4] 谭莹 YANG Zi;ZHANG Xun;HUANG Zhuo;TAN Ying(School of Statistics and Mathematics,Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Statistics,Beijing Normal University;National School of Development,Peking University;China Center for Economic Research,Peking University;School of Statistics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学统计与数学学院 [2]北京师范大学统计学院 [3]北京大学国家发展研究院 [4]北京大学中国经济研究中心 [5]西南财经大学统计学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2024年第7期93-112,共20页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(23AZD028);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973014,72271010,72241418);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72303180);四川省哲学社会科学基金青年项目(SCJJ23ND420);全国统计科学研究重点项目(2022LZ26)的资助。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告指出,中国发展进入“不确定难预料因素增多的时期”,这对效率和公平的影响巨大且深远。本文利用61个经济变量所构建的中国省级—季度层面的经济不确定性指标,结合中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),在理论分析的基础上,对经济不确定性如何影响个体创业与创业机会不均等展开研究。基准回归发现,经济不确定性降低了个体的创业概率。更重要的是,经济不确定性显著减少了以低人力资本、低物质资本和低社会资本为代表的弱势群体的创业机会,加剧了创业机会不均等。就机制分析而言,在需求侧方面,经济不确定性导致了家庭消费降级,降低了市场潜力,减少了创业机会;在供给侧方面,经济不确定性造成银行惜贷,提高了创业的融资成本,抑制了创业活动。在政策思路上,充分发挥中国超大规模市场优势有助于从需求侧的角度缓解经济不确定性对个体创业与创业机会不均等的负面影响,发展数字金融、推动金融普惠则是从供给侧的角度缓解经济不确定性对个体创业与创业机会不均等的负面影响的重要手段。The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party pointed out that China’s economic development has entered a period of increasing uncertainties,having a profound and significant impact on efficiency and fairness.How to measure China’s economic uncertainty,estimate the impact of economic uncertainty on efficiency and fairness,and then formulate policy ideas to alleviate the negative effects of economic uncertainty has become a common concern of all sectors of society.This study combines an economic uncertainty index constructed from 61 economic variables at the provincial level in China and data from the China Family Panel Studies.Based on the theoretical analysis,it examines the impact of economic uncertainty on individual entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial opportunity inequality.First,it found that economic uncertainty reduces operational income,inhibits the establishment of new enterprises,and lowers the probability of individual entrepreneurship.More importantly,economic uncertainty significantly reduces entrepreneurial opportunities for vulnerable groups,represented bythose with low human,physical,or social capital,exacerbating entrepreneurial opportunity inequality.Second,in terms of mechanism analysis,on the demand side,economic uncertainty leads to a degradation of household consumption,reduces market potential,and decreases entrepreneurial opportunities.On the supply side,economic uncertainty leads to banks being cautious in lending,increases the financing costs of entrepreneurship,and inhibits entrepreneurial activities.Finally,in terms of policy implications,we find that fully leveraging the advantages of China’s super-large-scale market helps alleviate the negative impact from the demand side,while developing digital finance is important to alleviate the negative impact of economic uncertainty on individual entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial opportunity inequality from the supply side.The contributions of this study are as follows.First,it discusses the impact of economic uncertainty

关 键 词：经济不确定性 个体创业 创业机会不均等 市场规模 数字金融 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]