结合加速时温数据和加权外推的橡胶老化寿命预测  

Rubber Aging Life Prediction Combining Accelerated Time-temperature Data and Weighted Extrapolation

作　　者：吕向飞 任琪[1] 张博[1] 邓钦文 LYU Xiangfei;REN Qi;ZHANG Bo;DENG Qinwen(School of Intelligent Engineering,Chongqing City Management College,Chongqing 401331,China;State Key Laboratory of Mechanical Transmission,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆城市管理职业学院智能工程学院,重庆401331 [2]重庆大学机械传动国家重点实验室,重庆400044

出　　处：《机械科学与技术》2024年第6期1072-1077,共6页Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering

基　　金：重庆市教委科研项目(KJQN202203302)。

摘　　要：针对加速数据外推合理性瓶颈,在高温加速试验数据的基础上,提出加权外推的方法实现橡胶寿命的准确预测。首先,建立橡胶性能的非线性加速退化模型,并采用非线性最小二乘法实现对不同温度下的加速因子进行识别;其次,建立加速因子和加速温度的阿累尼乌斯模型,根据误差特性进行活化能的加权推算;最后,由活化能推算出使用温度下的寿命,通过已有数据的建模验证了方法的有效性。研究可为提升橡胶零部件的加速寿命预测的准确性提供支撑,同时也可为其他机械零部件的可靠性评估提供参考。Aiming at the reasonable bottleneck of accelerated data extrapolation,based on high temperature accelerated test data,a weighted extrapolation method is proposed to achieve accurate prediction of rubber life.Firstly,the nonlinear accelerated degradation model for rubber properties is established,and the nonlinear least squares method is used to realize the identification of acceleration factors at different temperatures.Secondly,the weighted calculation of the activation energy is conducted.Finally,the life at the service temperature is calculated from the activation energy,and the validity of the method is verified by modeling the existing data.The research can provide support for improving the accuracy of accelerated life prediction of rubber parts,and can also provide reference for evaluating the reliability of other mechanical parts.

关 键 词：橡胶 老化寿命 时温叠加 加速退化 加权外推 

分 类 号：TB535[理学—物理]